Super Rugby roundtable: Why Crusaders will beat Blues to title

Head Coach Scott Robertson reacts during a Crusaders Super Rugby Pacific training session at Orangetheory Stadium. Photo / Photosport.co.nz

NZME rugby writers tackle all the big Super Rugby questions ahead of the playoffs this weekend.

What's the most interesting storyline of the Super Rugby playoffs?

Elliott Smith: Will we see any upsets beyond the form book? Or will the Blues march straight on to the title. The bloated eight-team playoffs may have the door open for upsets but it's hard to see anything but the top sides winning through each week until we get to the final. Having said that, the Crusaders have not been at their best this year and will need to lift in the coming fortnight to ensure they're at least at Eden Park on June 18 (assuming the Blues do likewise).

Nick Bewley: Whether we have some form of upset or are these next two weeks more or less content filler for what feels an inevitable Blues v Crusaders decider at Eden Park. Lopsided scores this week surely will force rugby bosses to act on a comical finals format where a team can finish on four wins yet qualify for the post season.

D'Arcy Waldegrave: Will the Blues choke on their favourites tag? Their marvellous run through the comp has left them with the advantage of home games, in front of returning fans. But the slate is clean, comp points mean nothing now and every team the play has the ability to pull that one game out of the hat that will send the high flyers of Super Rugby crashing back to earth.

How many teams have a realistic chance of winning?

Smith: Probably three. In a moment of weakness, I suggested there was a fairytale element possibly of the Waratahs coming through but the odds are stacked against them despite their ascent from the bottom. I give the Blues, Crusaders and Chiefs chances of winning the title.

Bewley: Three. The Blues are far and away the best side in the competition. Any perceived frailties in their forward pack are a thing of the past while their backline oozes class led by Beauden Barrett. The Crusaders are yet to lose a knock out match (10-0) under Scott Robertson, who is in his sixth season as coach. Let that sink in for a second. The Chiefs are the dark horse.

Waldegrave: Three sides. The Blues have the whip hand, with a heady mix of speed, power and accuracy and the Crusaders know what it takes in championship time. The Chiefs are teak tough but beyond that only a flurry of cards could change the top three narrative. That of course is not out of the question, it's almost expected and could see the collapse of a trophy run.

AJ Lam of the Blues and Finlay Christie of the Blues celebrates Dalton Papalii of the Blues try during the Super Rugby Pacific match. Photo / Photosport.co.nz

What was your favourite moment from the regular season?

Smith: Has to be Moana Pasifika beating the Hurricanes for their first ever win. Incredible try to match the occasion and gave the competition, blighted by Covid to that point, a bit of oomph. Runner-up being the Blues v Crusaders match as a spectacle — brought to mind the mid-2010s when the derbies were probably at their peak.

Bewley: The palpable excitement and joy exerting from the grandstands in Fiji as the Drua performed admirably against both the Highlanders and Chiefs on home soil. Fiji's fanfare for rugby is unparalleled, and there's and Moana Pasifika's introduction to the competition has been long overdue.

Honourable mention to the Blues v Crusaders in Christchurch which was just the shot in the arm the competition needed after a Covid-hampered kick-off.

Waldegrave: Beauden Barrett's winning dropped goal versus the Brumbies. Watching New Zealand's top No10, successfully nail a snap to pull a victory out of the fire was what all All Black fans want to see. For the goodness of the comp though, the heaving masses and their astonishing volume in the stands at Lautoka will remain for sometime. If Super Rugby don't look to capitalise on that energy in year to come, they've missed a huge trick. The efforts and joy for the game pulsing out of Drua and Moana, despite their results was a beacon.

Who has the most to prove to All Blacks selectors?

Smith: Probably two men out of the capital — TJ Perenara and Dane Coles. And they may only get one more shot at proving it before the All Blacks squad to face Ireland next month is named. Both have been great servants of the All Blacks jersey but international rugby waits for no one and father time and other players could have seen the others jump the queue. Ian Foster, and his selectors, must be ruthless when it comes to their squad for Ireland.

Bewley: TJ Perenara. Unless there's a strong desire for the All Blacks to persist with the Hurricanes veteran as a point of difference with his physicality he may become surplus to requirements with the swathe of snappy, high-octane halfbacks New Zealand has at its disposal. But who knows, a big shift in a winning performance against the Brumbies could sway the thinking.

Waldegrave: It's too late for anyone to prove anything to the selectors. They should know by now who is in their team. The finals series will cement those calls. The half back logjam is of interest, as is the midfield. One point the selectors will be focused on, right across the board, is each players attitude and application around discipline. If there is a question mark around a selection, this may be a defining issue.

Luke Romano celebrates. Crusaders vs. Blues, Super Rugby Pacific, Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch, New Zealand, Friday 14 April 2022. Photo / Photosport.co.nz

Who wins the comp — and why?

Smith: The Blues. They have the complete package this year and importantly, the depth behind some of their key players which hasn't always been the case. The Waratahs performance wasn't their best of the season but to have young Zarn Sullivan step up and slot a dropped goal speaks to the players standing by the top group.

Bewley: Crusaders. I'm aware this goes in direct conflict to what I said above about the Blues but I just have a hunch Scott Robertson's men will be able to draw on experiences of years gone by and lift when it matters most. Let's not forget the Crusaders went very close to beating the Blues in April despite having 13 players on the park at one stage.

Waldegrave: My red and black monocular vision makes it hard to look past a team with the pedigree and history of the Crusaders. They've not been the most convincing of sides to date, but they know what it takes when it really counts. They'd have to be the most stubborn sides out there. But in a final at Eden Park, it will be hard to look past the team of the year so far, the irrepressible and electric Blues. A little bit of me just died as I wrote that.