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KEY POINTS:
Give us the bully on the Super 14, what do ya reckon?
There is only one certainty about this year's series, with apologies to those of you who are convinced the coaching crown will be worn in his first year by Todd Blackadder. That could occur and would
be a massive result given the exit of a serious chunk of Crusader experience.
But before a ball is kicked in anger or a tackle made with some vehemence, before office staff pin their top-four predictions to the wall and before the competition begins tonight in Dunedin, the only cast-iron series prediction concerns the Cheetahs.
Drum roll, please.
The men from Bloemfontein up on the high veldt do not get to play their first game at home until April. You got it, April.
For the first seven weeks of the tournament the Cheetahs face a draw which has them away in Johannesburg, then on the road in New Zealand and Australia before they have a bye. It is not until week eight of the competition that they run out on their home dirt against the Brumbies.
As for picking the winner, perhaps even the top-four qualifiers, this may be one of the tougher years of the competition. It almost seems easier this year to find reasons why teams will not succeed in the 14th chapter of Super Rugby.
It feels incongruous to contemplate the Black Friday start to the series when the Indian cricket side have yet to hit these shores and only leave about the time the Cheetahs have their first match at home. But at least it is better to be discussing, dissecting or contemplating the rugby talent available to the All Blacks this season rather than dwelling on those who have carted their carcasses offshore or the standard of the Six Nations.
There is a much different feel to the Super scene this season.
For a start it is a Dan Carter-free zone, it was almost a Mitch-free zone, there is no Nussy or Robbie and matches are being controlled by merit-based officials.
Some big names have gone north like Nick Evans, Troy Flavell, Isa Nacewa, Tom Willis, Jerry Collins, Chris Masoe, Hoani MacDonald, Craig Newby, Nisa Ta'auso, Scott Hamilton, Campbell Johnstone, Caleb Ralph, Greg Somerville, Reuben Thorne, Mose Tuiali'i, others like Jono Gibbes and Nick White have retired, while Carter went on his sabbatical.
The exit of that large chunk of Crusader-power does not appear to have deterred most pundits who feel they will still make the playoffs. That confidence probably says something about the legacy Deans has left and optimism that Todd Blackadder will wring similar success from his changed squad.
There is a coaching changeover at the top of the country, too, where Pat Lam gets his first tilt with the Blues. There have been strong noises about the quality in the side even though that took an almost immediate dip for this opening week with Ali Williams injured and Joe Rokocoko and Jerome Kaino on babywatch.
Questions remain about the hinge in the team, that vital axis at No 8, halfback and first five-eighths, and whether they can smooth out some of the wrinkles in the link between the engineroom and the galloping back four.
Taniela Moa has improved as a halfback but once tonight's game with the Force is done, he is expected to return home on stork-watch. Chris Lowrey is a new No 8 and five-eighths is a position where all of New Zealand are holding their breath.
The Blues will start with Tasesa Lavea, whose fondness for attacking the line does free up space outside him but also places him under greater risk of damage. He does provide a different attacking style which could ripen if the front five deliver their international pedigree.
Best backline tag might sit with the Chiefs, who welcome back Brendon Leonard at halfback to serve Stephen Donald, Richard Kahui, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Lelia Masaga, Soseni Anesi and Mils Muliaina.
Noises that Sione Lauaki has been training the house down might provide another brewery billboard while Liam Messam and Tanerau Latimer are consistent looseforwards.
The questions will start in the tight five, where Kevin O'Neill and the imported Hika Elliot have been occasional All Blacks while the rest are raw to this level of intensive rugby.
If they are overawed or overpowered, it will be asking too much of the backs to deliver a consistent rescue plan.
In the past six seasons the Hurricanes have made four playoff series. They also have the largest contingent of All Blacks in their squad and have the advantage of playing seven of their matches at home.
Doubts circle their five-eighths production, where Willie Ripia and Dan Kirkpatrick have been chosen to wear the No 10 jersey, although there already seems to be rising discussion about a possible shift there for Piri Weepu as another All Black Alby Mathewson plays halfback.
Throw in late tournament starts for hooker Andrew Hore, centre Conrad Smith and the rattles about reliability grow a little noisier, while the Canes' early bye in the series raise questions about whether they will have enough sting towards the tail of the tournament.
Crusaders. Crusaders. Crusaders. You hear it from most places when asked to pick a New Zealand side to make the playoffs. They know their business, they understand what it takes to make the four and beyond, they have cover for some of those departed internationals and they have Richie McCaw.
Men like Leon MacDonald, Brad Thorn, Kieran Read, Corey Flynn, Ross Filipo, Andy Ellis and Casey Laulala have beaten the barriers to success, they understand how to deal with this tournament and will deliver that experience to their colleagues. They have an invaluable mid-series bye for the squad to recharge before they travel to South Africa.
Down the bottom of the country means down the basement of the New Zealand sides. It is a leap of faith to believe the Highlanders will lift higher than any other Kiwi sides and better than a best seventh finish in the past six years.
They have just three All Blacks in their squad, though they do have a gnarly enough look about their forwards to suggest they will ruffle teams who are off-kilter. Losing Craig Newby and Hoani MacDonald has eaten into the side's resources while the backs have a fresh, exciting but unproven look.
No one expects the Highlanders to frighten the top group, though they will believe anything is possible after clipping the champion Crusaders last year in the final round. Their problem will be finding enough consistent backline attack to unsettle teams rated ahead of them.
