Australia are up against a numerical tyranny they will never conquer in Super Rugby Pacific. Photo / Photosport
Australia are up against a numerical tyranny they will never conquer in Super Rugby Pacific. Photo / Photosport
OPINION
Super Rugby Pacific is going to kick off next year fuelled with the hope that there will be an Australian revival.
The source of this hope appears to be the limited defections the five Australian sides have endured post-World Cup.
Whereas New Zealand has experienceda post-tournament cleanout of experienced personnel, as well as the now-typical handful of senior players taking sabbaticals, Australia’s key players have mostly all signed up for another season of Super Rugby.
And as New Zealand Rugby head of professional rugby Chris Lendrum said last week, the continuity factor should enable all five teams to build on what they produced last year.
He might be right, and maybe it will turn out that all the Australians needed to come good was time.
It stands to reason that if the five playing groups are largely the same in 2024 as they were in 2023, they will be a year wiser and better prepared for what lies ahead.
But what weighs against this argument is the maths behind Super Rugby Pacific and the numerical challenge that Australia faces by choosing to operate five teams.
The numbers stack against Australia in a way few appreciate, and the reason there is scepticism about the sit-and-wait strategy is that their ambition to run five teams far outweighs their statistical ability to produce the players they need to successfully fulfil it.
We can keep waiting for Australia’s clubs to come right, but the more likely reality is that they never will. Each year they are trying to develop a significant number of athletes, who with the best will in the world, will never be good enough to play at the level they are being asked to play.
Underpinning the idea Australia can be a dominant force in Super Rugby is the fact that they once were.
Mark Tele'a of the Blues reacts after scoring a try against the Rebels. Photo / Photosport
When Super Rugby began in 1996, all three of their teams were competitive, among the best even.
But the maths behind operating three teams compared with five tells the story of why this revival is probably never coming.
Back in 1996, squads had 26 players, so Australia was operating with 78 contracted, fulltime professionals, and in the first 10 years of the competition, the Brumbies made the final six times and won two titles.
The numbers aligned with the available talent pool, but if we look at where things sit now, it’s apparent Australia are up against a numerical tyranny they will never conquer.
Now Australia have five teams with 37 players per squad, meaning they are trying to fill 185 contracts.
This is more than double the number they had in 1996, and they are trying to do this at a time when the Wallabies’ eligibility rules have changed to allow players with 70-plus test caps to still play for Australia if they are based offshore.
The European and Japanese club markets are also considerably more powerful in 2023 than they were in 1996 and so Australia, much like New Zealand, is finding that it’s not just its high-profile Wallabies talent being lured offshore, but ever-greater numbers of players with four to six years’ Super Rugby experience.
The situation in New Zealand is not helping Australia either as back in the first decade of Super Rugby, there was a steady drift of Kiwi talent across the Tasman.
New Zealand, when it had five teams with 26 players per squad, was a tougher market to crack.
Often, players who had two or three provincial seasons behind them would be picked up by an Australian Super Rugby club if they couldn’t break into a New Zealand franchise.
But now Kiwi teams are picking 38 players, and the arrival of Moana Pasifika has effectively created a sixth team, meaning the player drift to Australia has dried up.
In 1996, New Zealand and Australia were trying to find 208 professional players, now they are looking for a combined total of 413, albeit they can now more transparently tap into Samoa and Tonga.
The wider Pacific region simply doesn’t have access to that many quality players and Australia, given the competition among its various football codes, absolutely can’t find enough players genuinely capable of performing at the required level.
It may well turn out that Australia’s sides win more games in 2024 than they did in 2023, but that will most likely be a reflection of a drop in standards by the New Zealand sides, who may battle at times this year given the number of good players who are not available.
An Australian revival is a nice thought, but it’s improbable under the current regime and likely always will be until they are asked to contract a more realistic and achievable number of elite players.
