Season likely to be over for the loser

By WYNNE GRAY

If ever results created an NPC dogfight, then tonight's game at Eden Park between Auckland and Wellington is strong evidence.

Both provinces have let slip several matches this season they should have won, and some of that distress will still be burning from last week when Auckland lost to Northland for the first time in the NPC and Wellington messed up their Ranfurly Shield challenge.

There could be a raft of upsets again in this round which might keep both sides in the race for the final four, but more than likely the loser will be left struggling towards the playoffs.

"I think we have both backed ourselves into a corner," Auckland captain Xavier Rush said.

"We have lost two games in a row and could easily have fallen way down the table, but we have been fortunate with other scores. I don't think the last two results will have a negative effect on us. We know now there is only one way to go."

Ditto Wellington, who arrive after what may have been a more galling defeat in their shield challenge. But they know they came to Eden Park for the semifinal last year and blew Auckland away, and the ground and the form of the home side will not intimidate them.

Auckland's fear must be that Wellington will really explode. They showed patches of that strikepower last week without a huge amount of possession, and still managed four tries.

Auckland have to figure they will get a decent share of set-piece ball, where Ali Williams has been a lineout revelation to go with the reinstated Robin Brooke, Justin Collins and Xavier Rush jumping options, but their quandary will be what to do with the ball.

In night games this season they have tended to kick a lot, and with the forecast for some squally conditions, they may consider that is the best percentage move.

But if kicks from Carlos Spencer, Steve Devine or others are too loose, Wellington will get the sort of possession they thrive on. Auckland's tackling was awry last week and though one of the culprits, No 8 Samiu Vahafolau, has earned a reprieve, the inside defensive screens will need to be a lot tighter tonight.

Wellington had some good news yesterday, with experienced lock Dion Waller confirming he had re-signed with the union for another two years, quashing speculation he was moving north, or overseas, at the end of this year.

If the influence of referee Paul Honiss is minimal that will be gratifying for Wellington after their dramas this year with Honiss and Steve Walsh.

In response to suggestions from a variety of spectators, ARU chief executive David White has proposed some rearranging of Auckland's future NPC schedule, with more day games next year. The players have some trouble with the long wait for evening kickoffs and feel conditions are nowhere near as favourable as the late summer climes of the Super 12.

Unless there is an unlikely draw, one team will have the luxury of forgetting those hassles after this crucial meeting.