Rugby World Cup: Have the experts changed their tune?

All Blacks captain Richie McCaw looks on in disbelief as the French players celebrate after that infamous Cardiff quarter-final in 2007. Photo / Brett Phibbs

When the All Blacks run out onto Eden Park tomorrow night to play France in their Rugby World Cup pool match, they will be looking to redeem themselves after seriously underestimating the quality and ability of their opponents in 2007.

But they weren't the only ones guilty of that.

Four years ago, memories of 1999 were on the minds of rugby experts - professionals and the armchair sort - as the fancied New Zealanders prepared to face Les Bleus again in the knockout stages of the World Cup.

Predictions of an All Blacks victory were offered easily though France's ability to create magic when it counted, as they did in 1999, was not ignored.

A date - and a column - that will live in infamy

Herald columnist Chris Rattue acknowledged it was a "national duty" to be nervous before the All Blacks played a World Cup quarter-final, but three days before the game he was dismissive of France's reputation for performing unexpectedly well when it mattered most.

Rattue was so confident of a New Zealand victory that he found it hard to get excited about the October 6, 2007 fixture at all.

"So an apparel conspiracy and a delayed coin toss to decide who wears the alternate strip have stepped in to fill the build-up breach," he wrote.

"The scoreboard shows that the only things that have got closer between these two countries over the past five years are the jersey colours."

Four years later: "Saturday night's game has an aura beyond all others. There is an assumption that all those dastardly past injustices will be put right."

Meanwhile. the UK's Telegraph may have ensured Rattue's 2007 comments live in infamy.

Groundhog day? It's just another rotation

Rattue's Herald colleague Wynne Gray had it about right:

"Victory in Cardiff is the only acceptable verdict when the New Zealand Rugby Union's obsession about winning the World Cup has impacted so drastically on the rest of the season," he wrote on the morning of the match.

"Defeat against a patchy French side in a quarter-final would be the All Black nadir since the World Cup made its debut 20 years ago."

The same day, the Herald published Gray's report of comments made by Fabien Pelous, the French lock who was there when we lost to France in 1999 and again in 2007.

"I think the All Blacks, maybe, no not maybe, are the best team in this World Cup," Pelous said.

"And all the parts of their game are very good. But I think we are also a good team and we have good parts in our play. We are both good teams and just because they are good does not mean that we can't be good as well."

And back then there was talk about some player called Muliaina. How come Henry picked him at centre, asked Gray.

"Henry brought two centres to this World Cup, Conrad Smith and Isaia Toeava, yet he has picked a third, Mils Muliaina, to play against the French in the opening quarter-final at Cardiff.

Groundhog day? Is there going to be any symmetry about 1999, 2003, 2007?"

Four years later: "The All Blacks are in a section where the only threat to victory should come from France in the third game before they will likely meet Argentina or Scotland in the quarter-finals. That section of the tournament was their black beast last time, the nadir of New Zealand World Cup history."

As shocked as we were, then

Even the Telegraph prepared for an All Black victory, saying this was the most accomplished All Black team for 20 years. However, Brendan Gallagher - the same rugby writer who recalled Chris Rattue's piece from the archive - did say it was odd that the Rugby World Cup which had been staged in France suddenly shifted to Wales.

"Given such perversity, it is tempting to suggest that the game might garner an odd result - ie a shock France win - but it is virtually impossible to make the case for another French triumph along the lines of the Twickenham semi-final in 1999.

New Zealand have moved on apace since then and this is the most accomplished All Blacks team for 20 years."

Four years later: "On current form it would be difficult to come up with a stronger three-quarters line than the one selected, so any notion that France are fielding a wantonly understrength side boils down entirely to the surprsing selection of Morgan Parra at fly-half.

A Guardian giggle

And just for a laugh here is the Guardian's form tipping guide at the start of the 2007 Rugby World Cup.

Highlights? The All Blacks to win. Semi-finals to be All Blacks v Australia and South Africa v France.

Well, two out of four isn't bad.

Four years later: "France spook the All Blacks like no other team in the World Cup but unlike 2007 and 1999, when the sides met in the semi-final and New Zealand blew a big lead, defeat at Eden Park on Saturday would not see them knocked out, merely stunned."

Putting your money where your mouth is

Perhaps the lesson has been learned after all. Unlike 2007, when the odds of a French upset were considered "impossible" at best, finding an actual prediction for tomorrow's match from any pundit but a cow with a silver fern on its head proves to be a difficult task.

For the record, that cow is backing France. Sacre bleu.

- NZHERALD STAFF