All Blacks Jordie and Scott Barrett plus forwards coach Jason Ryan reflect on the squad’s 27 - 13 defeat in Paris and say there is ‘no lack of drive’ in this week’s clash against Namibia in Toulouse. Video / NZ Herald / Photosport
OPINION
Gregor Paul in Lyon
It says something about the All Blacks and the intensity of competition within the international game that neither New Zealand winning the World Cup nor being dumped out in the quarter-finals by a record margin would be a massive shock.
Theformer certainly wouldn’t be a surprise, given the devastating way the All Blacks played throughout the Rugby Championship.
But then they were beaten so comprehensively by South Africa and France in their last two encounters - suffering major mental meltdowns on both occasions - that a quarter-final exit is equally imaginable.
There’s a psychological volatility about the 2023 All Blacks that makes them impossible to predict and fosters a deep uneasiness about what they might produce next.
In the Rugby Championship, their discipline was exemplary, and they were mostly clinical, ruthless even, at converting half-chances.
In their last two tests, they have been inaccurate to a surprising degree, failed to stay calm in the big moments and didn’t look anything like genuine World Cup contenders.
It’s almost impossible to get a gauge on this All Blacks team because one minute they were playing stunningly good football, and stringing together three consecutive performances which is what they are going to have to produce in France to be crowned champions.
The next, they were all self-doubt, endless small mistakes and wildly ill-disciplined.
The All Blacks have become a classic Jekyll and Hyde team, but at least there do appear to be factors within their control to determine which they are going to be on any given day.
Ian Foster after the All Blacks' loss to France. Photo / www.photosport.nz
There are four things specifically they have to get right to ensure they are more Jekyll than Hyde.
The first is having access to their best team. There isn’t enough depth in the squad for the All Blacks to cope with injuries, and they need Tyrel Lomax, Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane, Shannon Frizell and Jordie Barrett to all be available by the quarter-finals.
Secondly, as former captain David Kirk pointed out last week, the All Blacks produce short periods of high-tempo, intense rugby rather than prolonged bouts.
They either need to find a way to stretch those periods of intensity for longer, or more realistically, they have to be ruthlessly clinical when they hit these purple patches and convert every chance they make.
In Paris, they were on a roll for the last 10 minutes of the first half but bombed two try-scoring chances that would have radically altered the complexion of the game had they been taken.
Going into the break 22-9 ahead instead of 9-8 down would have put France under colossal pressure to take risks and chase the game.
Thirdly, they have to find solutions to problems in real time. Against the Boks in Auckland, they managed to reconfigure their work at the breakdown midway through the second half when the South Africans were finding ways to disrupt their possession.
They identified a problem, came up with a solution, reset and recalibrated, which allowed them to start producing quick recycled ball again and finish the Boks off with two well-taken tries.
Fourthly, they need to change their mindset about how to set up and use their bench.
The All Blacks selectors may well disagree, but it does appear as if they are thinking defensively and conservatively when they pick their bench.
They are looking for players they can trust to make low percentage plays, steady performers who can facilitate the continuation of the gameplan.
Fin Christie is perhaps the most obvious beneficiary of this attitude, as he found himself on the bench against France due to his superior defensive capability.
The All Blacks need to cut out the errors, such as Will Jordan’s yellow card against France. Photo / Photosport
His selection illustrated that the selectors were thinking about closing the game out in the final quarter, whereas there is a strong argument to be made that the bench needs to be capable of changing the attacking dynamic, not preserving it.
France went up a gear in the final quarter when they brought on their bench, but the All Blacks didn’t, and you can only wonder what may have happened had Cam Roigard and not Christie replaced Aaron Smith.
Roigard is inexperienced but he’s also willing to back himself to make things happen, and as a significantly larger athlete than Smith, he poses defences different questions.
But perhaps the bigger omission from the bench is Damian McKenzie, who has the capability to change the tempo and point of attack due to his fast feet and sense of adventure.
He’s the sort of player who could make all sorts of things happen if he’s given 25-30 minutes to do so and if the All Blacks want to go up a gear in the final quarter, they have to have players on the bench who can make that happen for them.
Roigard and McKenzie would pose defences new problems to solve late in the game and it feels like the All Blacks would be less likely to fall victim to ill-discipline if their bench was picked with an attacking mindset rather than a reactive, defensive one.
