KEY POINTS:
A punter in London is so sure the All Blacks will win the World Cup, he stuck £90,000 ($235,000) on them last week. To splash that kind of cash, the mystery gambler must believe the All Blacks are holding something back in terms of tactical direction.
He must believe the error count will be slashed in France and he must be convinced that Graham Henry is going to get his 30-man squad selection just right.
That squad will be named this morning and will be done with an unexpected level of intrigue now there are noises about Sione Lauaki still being in the frame.
The loose forward probably would have been in the Tri Nations squad had he produced his late Super 14 form five rounds earlier and had his knee not crumbled.
That will still be a factor. Lauaki's place may depend on a medical reading.
If Lauaki is named today, his reprieve will have come on the back of Troy Flavell's failure to convince during the past eight weeks. Superb in the early rounds of Super 14, Flavell has regressed and hit a low in Melbourne where his basic skills were shoddy, culminating in a brain explosion when he tried to kick ahead rather than dip his shoulder.
The selection panel are still a bit jittery about their locking stocks, with Ali Williams not having played for six weeks and Keith Robinson a slave to a troublesome calf and back. But some of that nervousness seems to have been countered by, finally, reaching a conclusion that Reuben Thorne provides genuine cover for the middle row.
In the original 30 picked for the Tri Nations, there was a vagueness about whether the panel thought Flavell could play at No 6 and whether Thorne really could play at lock. By the end of last week's game in Christchurch, there was agreement among management that Thorne could handle the dual role, while no consensus was reached on Flavell.
If the Blues captain is indeed left out, it will be a soul-shattering blow for a player who appears to be blighted by fatigue more than any major shortcomings. Flavell had a massive workload during Super 14, which dealt a punishing travel schedule to the Blues.
But the introduction of Lauaki would give Henry's squad a better balance, vital at the World Cup which creates different issues. Seven games in six weeks and tight rules about sending for injury replacements mean the balance must be right. There must be experience, leadership, appropriate cover and a range of weapons in the armoury.
Henry's squad certainly have a level of experience and maturity that has been missing in previous campaigns. Almost half the men named today played in the 2003 World Cup and Anton Oliver was involved in the 1999 tournament.
Current squad member Keven Mealamu, who also played in 2003, says: "I know a lot of us when we went to the World Cup [in 2003] never thought we were going to go. It was our first season with the All Blacks and we were not as well prepared. Over the last two years, this is what we have prepared for. We are not only more mature, we have played some really good football and that has put in good stead for what is ahead."
The inclusion of Lauaki will douse fears about the pack lacking ball carriers. Henry wants his side to stay on their feet, win the collisions and offload in contact. Yet how many players are capable of bashing up the guts for the hard yards?
The rugby will get so tight in the knockout rounds that it's vital the All Blacks pose a threat close to the breakdown. Momentum must begin somewhere and responsibility for that really lies with the big units.
Thorne is a strong bench possibility in those crunch games given his ability to cover the back and middle rows. He's gritty and steady but he's most definitely low impact. Thorne is not the man to change the dynamic of a close test and that will have been another factor in keeping the door open for Lauaki.
If he's in the 30, then Lauaki is an option for the bench. He can't match Thorne for experience. He can't offer anywhere near the same level of sage, off-field input. But what he can do is tear off the back of a scrum and blast his 118kg frame through a selection of opposition defenders. What he can do is find space and get in behind a defensive line. Essentially, he brings tangibles to Thorne's intangibles and World Cups tend to be won on the power of the former.
On that score, there are grounds to wonder whether the selectors have also been unduly cautious in their refusal to give Liam Messam a crack.
Chris Masoe was initially a hit, seemingly taking no time to find his feet in test football. His progress has stalled, however, and back when coaches didn't back themselves into corners with extensive reconditioning windows, they seriously challenged whether underperforming squad members should be retained.
Messam is the most gifted loose forward to emerge in New Zealand since Zinzan Brooke and, like Masoe, he can cover all three loose forward berths. This year he toughened up, working as hard in the close exchanges as he did in the yonder wilds. And at 23, this is his time. He'll be 27 by the next World Cup and, given the physicality of rugby, could be a limping, broken mess by then. There is a nagging voice questioning whether they've made a mistake not including Messam.
That voice also has a point to make about Ma'a Nonu. In November last year, Nonu was the first choice second-five for the crucial second test in Paris. Now he's not in the top 30. He's always been fallible. His form has also fluctuated and his error count has always been high.
But the selectors have always known that and been prepared to stick with him for most of their tenure. Now, in the final year, they have lost faith.
Maybe they feel the potential liability is too great. Maybe they feel they have tried and failed to reform his game. But Nonu is a linebreaker and there have been plenty of times this season when his direct running would have straightened a relentlessly lateral All Black attack.
Conrad Smith is a clever footballer. He's a good distributor, defends well and stays calm under pressure. But he's short of form and fitness and not necessarily a match-winning commodity.
Look to history and the winners have always needed a spark of something special; a Stephen Larkham break, a Jason Robinson wiggle, a David Campese blind pass, a John Kirwan solo epic.
There are supremely skilled players throughout the All Black squad. But they need a wild card, an unknown element, someone who could be a 15-minute hero and end 20 years of waiting.
That man could just be Sione Lauaki.
