Rugby: Axe hangs over Fijian flyers' test futures

Joe Rokocoko's service at two World Cups will help his chances of making the test squad. Photo / Getty Images

English sportsmen are superstitious about the number 111 and All Black "cousins" Joe Rokocoko and Sitiveni Sivivatu may feel the same way after tomorrow's test squad announcement.

Their combined test tally stands at 111, but those decorated international careers may be about to stall in the rundown to the seventh World Cup.

Rokocoko and Sivivatu are two players involved in an expanded joust for selection as fullback or wing in the 30-strong national squad which will be unveiled at the North Shore Rugby Club tomorrow afternoon.

The Fijian pair's issue is complicated and multi-dimensional.

They have been around the squad for some years - Rokocoko for 68 tests and Sivivatu for 43 internationals - they have been consistent performers for Messrs Henry, Hansen and Smith, they have shared many tours and experiences.

Rokocoko went to the 2003 and 2007 World Cups, Sivivatu the last one and the All Black panel are very loyal to those who have delivered strong and consistent performances for them. Letting senior All Blacks go is not their strong suit.

But there are a swag of alternatives who can play on the wing: Mils Muliaina, Cory Jane, Isaia Toeava, Israel Dagg, Ben Smith, Hosea Gear, Zac Guildford, Sean Maitland, Rene Ranger, Sonny Bill Williams, Richard Kahui, even Ma'a Nonu at a pinch.

Assistant coach Wayne Smith mentioned those sorts of selection dramas on the wing when he spoke to the media this week. It just might be that head honcho Henry needs to apply the casting vote on what will be emotional and practical discussions.

There were no new caps in the 2007 World Cup group and it is hard to see that approach changing this year, unless the panel take a punt on Sean Maitland or Ben Afeaki. That is not the modus operandi of the current selectors, not since Toeava's selection in 2005.

It looks as though 10 who made the World Cup squad in 2007 - Muliaina, Toeava, Smith, Nonu, Daniel Carter, Piri Weepu, Richie McCaw, Ali Williams, Keven Mealamu and Andrew Hore - will be chosen tomorrow with loosehead prop Tony Woodcock, lock Anthony Boric and Dagg placed in an extra group who need to regain fitness and form in the ITM Cup to make it back for the tournament.

Muliaina, Nonu, Carter, McCaw, Williams, Brad Thorn, Mealamu and Corey Flynn were also in the 2003 campaign.

While fullback/wing is the troubled selection area in the backline, there are looseforward, lock and prop issues in the forwards.

Settling on a deputy for McCaw has been one task, testing an alternate lock and prop while Boric and Woodcock are in casualty is another.

Matt Todd and Luke Braid have been the rookie opensiders pushing to back up McCaw, while Braid's older brother Daniel has been used before but had restricted chances to promote his case this season after suffering a neck injury. Then there are Adam Thomson and Liam Messam, fine utility loosies who could deputise for the skipper.

Put the money on Thomson to get that role. He has done it before and with the game changing even more, his pace and technique at the tackle will fill the portfolio.

Jarrad Hoeata has shown the necessary application, workrate and technique to fill in at lock. Others like Tom Donnelly may have a lineout edge but not the same sting around the park and James Broadhurst is a less likely package to Hoeata.

After a season in the selection tundra, Wyatt Crockett has to be back. His performances have been commanding, his scrummaging much improved and when - or if - Woodcock returns, Crockett should keep his place with Ben Franks or John Afoa to disappear.

The Three Wise Men have made their decisions, but they will wait until the Super 15 final has finished to check if there are injuries which will impact on their choice of 16 forwards and 14 backs. Most likely Henry will then spend a fair chunk of tomorrow dealing with the pitiable task of phoning those who have missed the cut.

Possible squad

Backs: Mils Muliaina, Isaia Toeava, Cory Jane, Zac Guildford, Hosea Gear, Conrad Smith, Richard Kahui, Sonny Bill Williams, Ma'a Nonu, Daniel Carter, Aaron Cruden, Jimmy Cowan, Andy Ellis, Piri Weepu.

Forwards: Kieran Read, Richie McCaw (c), Jerome Kaino, Adam Thomson, Liam Messam, Sam Whitelock, Ali Williams, Brad Thorn, Jarrad Hoeata, Owen Franks, Ben Franks, John Afoa, Wyatt Crockett, Keven Mealamu, Andrew Hore, Corey Flynn.

Fitness tests required: Israel Dagg, Anthony Boric, Tony Woodcock.