Paul Lewis on the All Blacks: Selection errors revealing

Dan Carter. Photo / Getty Images

If the All Blacks lose the Rugby World Cup because Daniel Carter is not there, then the bloodied entrails of that defeat will stretch back a year and can be laid squarely at the door of Graham Henry, Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen. Again.

These are times when the cheerleaders are trying to usher everyone into positive poses - like, let's all get behind Colin Slade - so let's put that contention another way: If the All Blacks win the World Cup, it will be in spite of the All Black coaches' machinations at first five-eighths, not because of it.

Cast your mind back to the end-of-year touring party in 2010. The biggest issue then, as it has been for the past four years, was the identity of Daniel Carter's back-up. The Three Wise Men selected Carter and Stephen Donald for that tour; they chose three hookers and three halfbacks but two first five-eighths.

Donald's selection was controversial; more so when he had a nightmare in the lost test against the Wallabies in Hong Kong before the European leg of the tour. Donald - nice man and good player that he is - seemed wanting at the top level. Worse, most said so before the selection had been made.

Let's go back to a column I wrote in November 2010, which looks sadly prescient now that Carter's groin has handed in its resignation.

"Graham Henry's response ("that's just the nature of some people in New Zealand") when asked about the criticism of first five Stephen Donald was understandable - if unacceptable. Henry, under pressure, remarked on the nature of those making the criticism rather than focusing on the issue. It was clear from his other comments that Henry knew how poorly Donald had played but, siege mentality being what it is, he played the loyalty card.

"He's [Donald] played some outstanding football lately but he had a difficult 20 minutes on Saturday," said Henry. "He knows that, we know that, but I think he's good enough to overcome that and it'll be interesting to see how he handles that."

Loyalty is one thing. Commendable, even. Blind loyalty is quite another. No one expects the All Black coach to come out and say: "Well, I thought he played like my grandma's cat - and she's blind and pees on the mat." But having a poke at what they and those close to them like to think is the 'lunatic fringe' denies the fact that most of New Zealand was telling Henry, Smith and Hansen that Donald was not of All Black quality even before he was chosen.

No, fact was, the All Black selectors believed in Donald - and they have believed in him for 20 tests now. They are about to believe in him for more. If the jungle drums are right, he will start against Scotland next week. [He did, and played against Wales in the following test.] This must go close to being one of the great selection blunders in All Black history. There have been plenty - but few continued for so long. Why not leave one of them [a halfback or a hooker] at home and take the talented Slade? Take a goalkicking expert and coach the bejesus out of him on tour to get his confidence and experience up. Most knowledgeable rugby judges believe Cruden is not yet ready to be Carter's understudy - underscored by the coaches saying lovey-dovey things about Cruden before dropping him.

Carter's deputy remains an item of horror for most New Zealand rugby fans. They keep seeing the recurring nightmare of Danny limping off ... and Donald coming on. Most equate this with things like: a tsunami; the black plague; the return of The Apprentice New Zealand. There will be some hate mail about us being nasty to that nice Donald boy. Forget it. Unless you can win the World Cup by charming people, being nice isn't relevant. I don't give a badger's tadger if Danny's Deputy is a cross-dresser with carnal knowledge of crash test dummies; someone who has a corgi sandwich and then belches at the Queen. Three years have gone. One year left, almost, to find a decent back-up for Carter."

Graham Henry's failure to do so stands as a black mark on this regime; it will be forgotten only with a World Cup win. The selection of Donald for that 2010 tour is a large factor in Slade's apparent unreadiness for the top job. Donald's All Black career ended after that tour.

This column has long endorsed Slade as the deputy to Carter. He has talent. What he doesn't have is time in the job and experience in tight situations; like kicking the winning goal under pressure. His absence from that tour and those tests against Australia, Scotland and Wales stands now as a silent rebuke to all those involved.

In short, Slade is not ready. Neither is Cruden, another undeniably talented 10 but with question marks still over his defence and kicking at top level. Piri Weepu is this column's choice because of his cool head, experience and steadiness - in particular his ability to kick pressure goals - but is clearly not that of the selectors.

The key may now be a change of tactics. Expect the All Blacks to continue their wide-wide stuff against the Pumas tonight but they may play matters a lot tighter from the semifinal on. Think the second half in Brisbane against Australia in the Tri Nations when they tightened their game, played a lot of pick-and-drive and percentages - and turned an embarrassing 20-3 halftime deficit into a 25-20 loss, winning the second half 17-5.

Henry's All Blacks have the ability to change their game. It's just a pity that their selection panel failed in their single biggest task over the last four years. Hopefully, Slade will do the business and this complaint will be redundant. If not, and the country once again eviscerates itself over the World Cup, well, we know where to send the entrails.