KEY POINTS:
To read most of the pre-match media reports, you'd think the only thing the All Blacks have to do is turn up at Millennium Stadium on Sunday morning (NZ time), to be assured of a comfortable win against the hapless France side.
Statistics would seem to bear this
out - in terms of match results, anyway. Four huge wins in the pool stage are an undeniable barometer of the All Blacks' dominance at the World Cup.
Even if the wins came at the expense of minnow opposition (sorry, Scotland).
However, a group of trainspotters have delved deeper into the statistics, and emerged with some figures which, whilst not being a cause for alarm among AB supporters, at least do bring a measure of perspective to things.
The research analysed the performances of each of the eight quarterfinalists, and offers comparative data. It appears in the form of this blog on the excellent website Public Address Net.
For example, the All Blacks lead the rest of the field in the attractive category of Tries per minute of possession (0.27), but supporters will hardly feel comforted to see we also lead the pack in Handling Errors per minute of possession (0.34).
This offers more insight into the raw statistic, often quoted, of how many handling errors the All Blacks have made (58, by far the largest amount of any team in France).
The response of "oh sure, but we had the most possession .. so it stands to reason that we'll make the most handling errors", doesn't exactly ring true when these new stats are brought into the equation.
Not to be too much of a doom-sayer, but we're also well down in terms of Scrums won against the head (we're at seven per cent, whilst five of the other quarterfinalists have percentages in double figures); and Lineouts won on the opposition's throw, which we have done 18 per cent of the time, placing us a lamentable 6th out of the eight teams still in the tournament.
However, before you go racing out to the TAB and place your wages on one of the other fancied teams, one piece of the researchers' data offers a hefty modicum of comfort - the All Blacks do have the edge over the rest in what is arguably the most important stat of all: Turnovers.
Richie and co are the best rovers in the game, when it comes to grand theft at the breakdown. And that's not just gut feel - that's by the numbers.
But then, we didn't need a statistician to tell us that all-too-obvious fact, did we?
* SOURCE: Publicaddress.net, referencing statistical data posted on The Dropkicks website.