The All Blacks open up on the fear of making unwanted history as they prepare to take on Ireland in a massive Rugby World Cup quarter-final clash in Paris. Video / NZ Herald
Rugby World Cup-winning All Blacks captain David Kirk looks at the quarter-final clashes that will define the tournament.
OPINION
For all the drama and surprise of the pool stages of the Rugby World Cup, the quarter-finals have shaken out - with the exception of the elimination of Australia - asexpected. The results of the quarter-finals involving pools C and D are quite easy to predict. I think Wales and England will win their matches without too much drama against Argentina and Fiji and proceed to the semifinals. Argentina are the only wildcards. The progress they have been making in recent years seems to have come to a halt this year. They were poor coming into the Cup. In the pool they were well beaten by a 14-man England and struggled to dominate Japan and Samoa. However, we know they can play a lot better, and Wales will need to be on their guard.
The real interest is in the quarter-finals involving pools A and B: New Zealand v Ireland and France v South Africa. These are the best four teams in the tournament by a long way and the two winners will win their semifinals and meet in the final.
In playing style, these teams play on a spectrum that has at one end (let’s call it the left) a focus on dominant set piece, kicking penalties (for goal or into the corner), driving lineouts, one-off running from rucks, powerful metre-making loose forwards and sharp finishing in the backs. On the other end of the spectrum (the right) is a solid set piece, kicking to regain possession, mixed forwards and midfielders running off rucks, counter-attack, a running and play-making fullback, and ball-handling loose forwards. On this spectrum, South Africa are closest to the left end, then Ireland, then France and finally New Zealand are closest to the right end.
If the spectrum described types of companies listed on a stock market, South Africa would be a railway and New Zealand a tech stock. The comparison is useful because it takes us to the right way of thinking about how the teams perform over time and the potential outcome of the quarter-finals. That is, risk-return. No other team in the Rugby World Cup but the All Blacks could have scored 96 points against Italy. On the other hand, South Africa would have been unlikely to give up 17 points against Italy.
Left-to-right: Siya Kolisi (South Africa), Johnny Sexton (Ireland), Antoine Dupont (France) and Beauden Barrett (All Blacks). Photos / Getty Images
France are interesting because, with Antoine Dupont, they play a bit more like South Africa, and without him, they play a bit more like New Zealand. This is because Dupont brings a powerful kicking game. Against Italy, France played virtually identically to the All Blacks, and they played more like South Africa in the opening match of the tournament.
South Africa and France are, for the moment, not the problem. Ireland are, and that is the focus for the rest of this column. Let’s start by saying, in a significant compliment to Sir Steve Hansen and the players of that generation, Ireland play like we used to play. Rock-solid set piece, hard running, tackling and turn-over focused loose forwards, dominant first five, mix-it-up style of play and focused on playing the game down the right end of the field. For the All Blacks in 2015, the result was a stream of ball on the front foot, giving Dan Carter plenty of options. Ireland have Johnny Sexton doing just the same thing today.
The game has moved on since the heady days of 2015 and it has moved in the two directions outlined above. The South Africans have taken the game to another level of set-piece focus, physical confrontation, driving lineouts and so on. The All Blacks have taken the game to a new level of pace, continuity, and counterattack. Ireland and France have gone to where we were in 2015 and are doing it better than we did.
The All Blacks have undoubtedly succeeded in taking the game to a new level. Much of the play against Italy was breathtakingly beautiful running rugby. Our problem from time to time in recent years has been that we have not had good enough set pieces or collision power-play to control where the game is played on the field.
The formula to beat Ireland is actually pretty easy to say - and of course very hard to do. We have to match their set-piece discipline, accuracy at the breakdown and immaculate decision-making - and add our own continuity and pace. This is what the All Blacks of 2023 have been working towards since England miraculously and - as it turned out, unrepeatably - produced it in the semifinals in 2019.
David Kirk is best known as the captain of the All Blacks when they won the inaugural Rugby World Cup in 1987.
