All Blacks v France: It would be lunacy to write off the All Blacks but Foster’s team has an imposing forlorn of firsts

OPINION:

If there’s a lesson to be learned from the loss to France, it is simply that the All Blacks just might not be good enough to win the Rugby World Cup this time round.

The loss didn’t sting as much as World Cup losses normally do, perhaps because the head coach prefaced it with: “If we win or lose, it still doesn’t change much. We still have to qualify out of this group”.

While you have to respect Ian Foster’s calm and dignity in his media outings in France, at the same time it was a strange remark to hear from an All Blacks coach, logical though it is. Obviously expecting your national representatives to win every game isn’t realistic but neither is relying on the fact the South Africans lost a pool match last time and still won the Cup.

For these All Blacks, world-class opponents are presenting a bit of a problem. On their day, it seems Foster’s All Blacks can beat anyone – but it has to be their day. Too many things have to go right – the percentages when they play their high-tempo, counter-attacking game are against them in this era of highly suffocating defence and strict refereeing.

Their scrum isn’t quite good enough, neither is the lineout. Not yet anyway. They have lost the breakdown struggle in their last two tests, against the Boks and now France. They surprised the French with their fast start and dangerous ability but, when the pressure went, on they wobbled and fell.

The All Blacks huddle together after losing to France. Photo / Getty Images

Foster’s All Blacks now have an imposing array of forlorn firsts – first to lose a test to Ireland, first to lose a series to Ireland, first to lose to Argentina, unhappy holders of the All Blacks’ record test defeat and now the first All Blacks side to lose a pool match in the World Cup. Statistics are only worth so much, but they can have an adverse psychological effect just as such results psychologically buoy the opposition – as we saw with France and how they grew into the match.

It would be lunacy to write the All Blacks off entirely – they are still aiming, as Foster pointed out, at the quarter-finals and taking things one knockout game at a time. They still have four first-teamers missing and, who knows, they may even be able to avoid the yellow and red cards that seem to follow them round like lost puppies.

Will Jordan’s yellow card was the game-changer. It only cost the All Blacks three points but it was when momentum shifted. The French had looked like they were dragging their feet but the yellow card uplifted them, as did their bench – by far the better of the two teams of substitutes.

The recipe for beating the All Blacks remains: parity or better in scrums and lineouts, overpowering and slow them at the breakdown, defensive line speed, accurate kicking for territory and aerial retrieval, plus rolling mauls. France did all of that, in the second half especially. The All Blacks’ preferred plan is to use that undoubted skill of hand and foot to run the opposition ragged but, if it doesn’t click, it clunks – like that pass into touch as Codie Taylor desperately tried to find Dalton Papalii with the All Blacks hot on attack in the first half.

However, bring the first-teamers back, have everyone playing in their proper positions and who knows? Maybe this team could yet click into gear; there can be no argument about the talent. It’s the game plan that concerns, plus their head space right now, plus a feeling that even selection changes (outside the return of those injured) won’t really help.

Scott Barrett had another all-action game, Mark Telea was irrepressible in the first half though the French policed him carefully in the second. Ardie Savea and Aaron Smith had their moments, with Smith successfully harassing Antoine Dupont a few times. Richie Mo’unga had some bright spots and a wonderful try-saving tackle – but seemed to regress in terms of game management.

Speaking of which, it was hard to figure out why the All Blacks relied so much on the kick even when they were chasing the game. Much of it came from Beauden Barrett at fullback and he could be one of only two selection changes to be made for future tough matches at this tournament.

It’s unlikely – this coaching administration seemed wed to him. Barrett’s long kicking worked well enough in the first half, but he seemed uncertain at times when running the ball and reverted to the kick late in the game when running the ball and keeping possession seemed mandatory. Many feel Jordan is better there, with more room and time to use that speed and angled running. Maybe that’s the plan later in the tournament - we certainly had enough wings on board before Emoni Narawa went home, at any rate.

The only other merit change I can see is Cam Roigard as bench halfback. Finlay Christie didn’t add much in the 18 minutes he played and it’s difficult to understand why Roigard’s direct style and running ability weren’t available.

Maybe they’re keeping him until the quarter-finals. Let’s hope so.

Paul Lewis has been a journalist since the last ice age. Sport has been a lifetime pleasure and part of a professional career during which he has written four books, covered Rugby World Cups, America’s Cups, Olympic & Commonwealth Games and more.