Rugby: It could be Canterbury's year in NPC

By CHRIS RATTUE

Canterbury will be seeking a rare NPC title this season - and who would bet against them taking the trophy and giving coach Robbie Deans a fitting farewell?

While the Crusaders have stomped through the Super 12 for the past three seasons, domestic titles have been more elusive, although circumstances have conspired against them.

Canterbury's last championship title was in 1997 - and that was their first in 15 years.

In 1998, they fell at the semifinal hurdle in Hamilton, but last year they, and Otago, were especially hurt by defections to the All Blacks' World Cup campaign and were not even in the hunt.

However, both sides must assume heavy title favouritism in 2000, when All Black duty will cause minimal disruption to their campaigns.

What separates Canterbury and Otago in favouritism? Nothing really, looking at the lineups.

But Canterbury rugby seems to be on one of those rolls that sweep up titles. And when the going gets tough, Deans may just provide them with an edge, given that he is now the most experienced coach in the NPC and is well versed in the big occasion.

The other major contender has to be a rejuvenated Wellington.

Injuries and the retirement of Jeff Wilson have taken the edge off Otago's outside backs, exactly the area where Wellington rule supreme.

Wellington have some of the country's best young loose forwards and may have shored up their tight five, with South African Morne van der Merwe adding more international flavour to their front row.

With Christian Cullen, Tana Umaga and Jonah Lomu in full flight, it might just be the capital's turn.

So for this pundit, it's Canterbury and Wellington in the final, which would also lend a nice bit of north-south rivalry to the occasion.

Champions Auckland, North Harbour and Waikato are the main challengers. North Harbour, in particular, look to have a forward pack on the rise and have been bolstered by Australian prop Rod Moore.

There is no doubt that North Harbour have the flair, but do they have the nous to go with it?

Auckland have discarded some old faithfuls, but still have a vein of class running through the side. But depending on which lineup Wayne Pivac goes with, there could be pockets of inexperience in the side which may hurt them in the big games.

Waikato have always been in the hunt in recent years, even though their players never seem to last long in the All Blacks. But after a series of seasons in which they were near but yet so far in terms of winning the title, the Mooloo men have hit one of those dangerous points where they could begin to slide.

Northland, Counties Manukau, Taranaki and Southland will need walk-on-water-type miracles to win the title, but Northland and Taranaki in particular have shown they can give the top sides a decent run. However, it is tough work these days unless you are in the centre of Super 12 action.

It is hard to envisage the day when the likes of Taranaki or Northland could actually win New Zealand's top domestic rugby prize. And that, despite all the good facets of the NPC, is undoubtedly one of its major weaknesses.