Rugby: All signs point to a Wallaby win

WYNNE GRAY reports that the several elements conspire against a Springbok victory over Australia.

The Tri-Nations rugby series should be reduced to a twin-countries assault on the trophy after tonight's test between the Wallabies and Springboks.

As for the All Blacks last week, everything stacks up for a Wallaby victory. They have a fit and revitalised squad ready to deal to a visting side troubled by playing, coaching, injury and selection dramas.

The Wallaby pack may struggle at times against their larger opponents, but the adventurous and accurate backline should be too classy for their opposites. They also have the advantage of catching the Boks in a fragile state as they try to deal with three defeats in their last five tests, with only twin victories against a woeful Italy in the profit margin.

It is a situation the All Blacks and their coaching staff can sit back and watch with relish. They are in the middle of their fortnight's gap between tests, training in Mt Maunganui while their foes bash each other in Brisbane.

The Springboks have the worst of the Tri-Nations draw with tests on two lots of successive weekends, while the Wallabies also have to front next week against the All Blacks.

The Wallabies will be anxious tonight even after twin wins against Ireland and a stuttering victory over England. The Boks are never a pushover even with their latest selection merry-go-round, where coach Nick Mallett has made another seven changes.

He has found a better side. Any club players would have been better than the halves combination used last week, while Robbie Fleck has got some attacking clues in midfield and Rassie Erasmus is a skilful, ball-playing loose forward.

But Mallett is worried. He is in regularly terse moods with the South African media on tour, he cannot play the expansive rugby he cherishes because a handful of his top men are injured, while the rumours of internal bickering grow.

Former Wallaby first five-eighths Mark Ella pinpoints several areas where the Australians have to sting the Boks. He believes victory will come but only if the Wallabies move and vary their attack points in contrast to the predictable patterns of last year.

The links and direction between George Gregan and makeshift five-eighths Tim Horan will be crucial to playing the game past the advantage line. Gregan had to run more and Horan's physical strength might work better against the Boks than the injured Stephen Larkham.

Matt Burke's return would also help the goalkicking and attacking width.

"The Wallabies have the ability to rip South Africa apart if they want to, but first they have to believe they can, like I do," said Ella.

For their part the Boks seem to be working on a new snow-job theory. Their consistent comments read like a sporting reference for the Wallabies. They can find no fault and remain in awe of their opposition. The forwards are all excellent and the backs all world-class.

Mallett espouses adventure and rejects suggestions that his side will work on damage limitation.

"We definitely won't be playing it that way," he said.

But hope may not become reality for the Boks, whose inexperienced combinations, away from home and under extreme pressure, should not last the distance against a settled Wallaby squad.

July 10: All Blacks v Springboks, Dunedin.

July 17: Wallabies v Springboks, Brisbane.

July 24: All Blacks v Wallabies, Auckland.

August 7: Springboks v All Blacks, Pretoria.

August 14: Springboks v Wallabies, Cape Town

August 28: Wallabies v All Blacks, Sydney.