Rugby: Storm of protest looming

Counties Manukau believe sponsors will sue them if they are demoted at the end of the season. Southland could win the championship and be rewarded with relegation while Harbour could finish close to last and still end up ranked in the top five under the assessment criteria that will determine who stays up.

The New Zealand Rugby Union are talking positively about a meaningful first division of six teams yet it's believed the two Heartland sides keen on coming up are North Otago and King Country - neither of whom were good enough to qualify for the higher ranked Meads Cup.

Wanganui, the best-resourced and potentially most powerful Heartland side, are understood to have crunched the numbers and decided promotion is not financially viable and would rather stay where they are.

Provincial rugby is in a horrid mess and weeks, probably months, of legal fights and bickering loom when it is decided which four teams will go down.

During the same process last year, the bottom four teams were Tasman, Northland, Southland and Manawatu.

If Tasman and Southland fans are hoping their successful campaigns will elevate them, they will be disappointed.

The performance criteria are weighted across the last four years so the maximum overall lift from 2009, regardless of where a team finishes, will only be around 1 per cent.

Counties chief executive Phil McConnell, says: "We could have paid 26 players in our squad the absolute minimum this year and lost every game but reached the end of the season financially solvent."

Solvency is the key - that is the first test all 14 teams will have to pass.

Every union will have to prove their assets are greater than their liabilities and that they can pay their bills on time.

It's expected all will be able to do so, leaving a lot of guesswork as to who will be given the chop. Counties say they have improved on all criteria from last year but suspect most other unions will have, too.

Bay of Plenty, 10th last year, and Counties (ninth), alongside Manawatu (11th), Southland (12th), Northland and Tasman are the unions most in danger.

But whatever is decided, it's inevitable the NZRU will face impassioned appeals.

"We could have a couple of lawsuits against us next year," says McConnell.

"We have sponsors signed up on the basis that we will be in the Premier Division in 2009 and 2010. I would imagine if we are in that position, given that we have the least sponsors, that other unions will be in the same boat."

The NZRU, so far at least, has given the impression it will fight these battles when they arise and that they are no reason for a re-think.

But there is one compelling statistic the NZRU will find harder to ignore; one that should make them cautious before they wield the axe.

It's easily forgotten that in 2006 when the championship expanded to 14, only one of the four promoted sides - Tasman, Counties, Manawatu and Hawke's Bay - had contracted Super 14 players. That was Counties with Lelia Masaga and Niva Ta'auso at the Chiefs.

This year, the four promoted sides provided 18 Super 14 players between them. The most prolific has been Hawke's Bay. In the past three years they have produced Hika Elliot, Arizona Taumalolo, George Naoupu, Clint Newland, Bryn Evans, Israel Dagg, Zac Guildford and Karl Lowe. They also resurrected the career of former Blues midfielder Jason Shoemark and brought Thomas Waldrom from Wellington.

Manawatu was a platform from which Hayden Triggs was able to win a contract with the Hurricanes in 2007 before going to Otago. Johnny Leota made the Highlanders from Manawatu and Josh Bradnock was in the Hurricanes squad this year. Aaron Cruden is expected to be protected by the Hurricanes for 2010 and it would be a surprise if Andre Taylor and Kurt Baker are not picked up by someone.

Tasman have been a steady developer - in their ranks they have Kahn Foutali'i, Daniel Perrin, Jonathan Poff, Kade Poki and can lay claim to Ben May who is now with Waikato and the Chiefs.

Elliot and Evans are All Blacks and few doubt it will be long before Cruden, Dagg and Guildford are test stars.

It can't be overlooked either that Southland are the powerhouse province of the Highlanders now, and have been for the past few years.

Batten down the hatches - a storm of protest is about to cut a wide swathe through New Zealand rugby.