Rugby: Odds well stacked against Northland

Form and history make uncomfortable bedmates for Northland ahead of their Ranfurly Shield challenge in Christchurch today.

First, the history.

The teams have met six times for the shield, dating back to 1955. All six games were in Christchurch and Canterbury successfully defended the chunk of wood each time, most recently by a whopping 68-19 in 2004.

So Northland will take little consolation from that, other than the old standby about it being high time to end that poor record.

Then there's the matter of form. Canterbury lost their opening Air New Zealand Cup match to North Harbour on August 1.

Their only other defeat was to Bay of Plenty on a rousing afternoon at Mt Maunganui early this month.

Otherwise there have been no indications that Canterbury will miss out on a semifinal place. Indeed the familiar tag of "Team to Beat" can justifiably be affixed to their name ahead of the playoffs next month.

Canterbury are without their heavyweight All Blacks - Dan Carter, Richie McCaw, Brad Thorn and Owen Franks all having opted to have a holiday - but have fullback Colin Slade and prop Wyatt Crockett returning.

Captain George Whitelock is missing with an ankle strain, but even though Northland don't rate among the stellar teams, Canterbury's coach Rob Penney did his best to talk up their prospects, presumably trying to guard against any complacency among his players. "A win here would make their season and probably make some of their players' careers. They are a very efficient side," Penney said.

Northland's season has veered between encouraging and frustrating. They were impressive in beating Taranaki and Manawatu, and sharing the points with Southland in Invercargill.

But they had a horror night against bottom-placed Counties-Manukau.

Coach Bryce Woodward has kept the same starting XV which beat Manawatu 25-18 in Palmerston North last weekend.

Woodward knows a giant step up will be required today. Northland last held the shield in 1979, so the idea of grabbing a piece of folklore will help to provide motivation.

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Hawkes Bay host Manawatu today in what could be an entertaining match, both very much with semifinal thoughts in mind.

The hosts are fourth, Manawatu 10th, and nine points off the semifinal spots. If they make it, which is a long shot given their run home, expect a giant green-and-white nose to be thumbed in the direction of the New Zealand Rugby Union, who have them marked for dumping under the 14-into-10 scheme for next year.

Loosehead prop Sona Taumalolo plays his 50th game for Hawkes Bay, who are out to retain the Kel Tremain Trophy today.

Manawatu, still without key organiser Aaron Cruden through injury, are in danger of taking a step on a slippery slope if they don't get something out of today's game. Their next two games are away to Wellington, then Canterbury.

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Bay of Plenty can keep up their impressive season with a win over wonky Otago in Dunedin tonight.

Otago will be buoyed by the return of new All Black Tom Donnelly, but they haven't been convincing this season, and their semifinal hopes are all but gone.

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NZRU official Mike Eagle has been appointed to represent the union on the board of the Highlanders Super 14 franchise on an interim basis.

Eagle's appointment is part of an agreement from the financially struggling franchise to change its governance following a poor return in 2008/09 and projected shortfall in 2009/10.

The New Zealand union will underwrite the financial performance of the Highlanders for the next two financial years.