Rugby: NZRU sharpening axe for provincial cull

Auckland's captain Benson Stanley is injured. Photo / Getty Images

The National Provincial Cull began last night - the 14-team rugby series is due to be reduced to 10 teams by the end of this season.

"Due" might be a problematic word; it's unlikely there will not be some post-competition battle between two aggrieved demoted sides who think they should stay in the top division. And more complications from the Tasman alliance are likely.

When the New Zealand Rugby Union devised their complicated set of criteria last year to work out teams' rankings, they ended up with an order which went: Auckland, Canterbury, Wellington, North Harbour, Waikato, Hawkes Bay, Otago, Taranaki, Counties Manukau, Manawatu, Bay of Plenty, Southland, Northland, Tasman.

The actual finishing order in last year's NPC was: Wellington, Canterbury, Hawkes Bay, Bay of Plenty, Southland, Waikato, Tasman, Taranaki, Northland, Otago, Auckland, North Harbour, Counties Manukau, Manawatu.

This year? Who knows?

It all smacks of the NZRU protecting their preferred teams in spite of NPC results.

Forget the spin which will surge out of the NZRU public relations department, this year's provincial championship is likely to be remembered more for who gets the bullet than for who wins the title.

The sides who finish in the last four places will be known after week 13 starting in late October - so we'll know who's at the bottom, but we won't necessarily know who's going down. You get the drift - there is a Clayton's Clause which then has to be applied before we know the disappearing quartet.

While many would take the view that the sides' finishing order should be the final arbiter, that is not the view of the NZRU.

Of course if the bottom four sides match the NZRU's preferred provincial departures then there will be less drama.

But they will want to protect the five Super rugby bases so Auckland, Waikato, Wellington, Canterbury and Otago will be exempt from demotion under a complicated weighting system designed to protect areas which hoover up all the leading players.

That leaves nine unions fighting for five places in the top group with the rest to drop to the six-team division one.

It will be a serious dogfight and unions such as Bay of Plenty, who will be squaring up for that scrap, do not need distractions such as the one they have had this week with the disappearance of their coach Greg Smith.

In this modern age, gazing into crystal balls is about as profitable as producing leather rugby balls, but Tasman, Counties Manukau, Manawatu and Northland are the sides who will do well to avoid the chop.

But if others make a bad start to the competition and then struggle with injuries or away fixtures, they could be inhabiting the competition cellar.

Quarter-finals have been dispensed with this season. Instead the top four will go into the semifinal playoffs with Wellington and Canterbury favoured to occupy a couple of places.

Hawkes Bay are also fancied, though they face a tough start when they host an Auckland team who have a new coaching group, an injured captain in Benson Stanley and are smarting from their poor results last year.

Bay coach Peter Russell and players such as Israel Dagg, Hika Elliot, Bryn Evans, Zac Guildford, Karl Lowe, George Naoupu, Clint Newland and Sona Taumalolo brought a sharp edge to the group before they were beaten by Canterbury last year in the semifinals.

Everyone will be aware of the Bay's threat this season, they will come in for greater scrutiny as they try to repeat their 2008 deeds.

Defending champions Canterbury have a repaired Daniel Carter to use, for the start of their campaign at least, while other former and current All Blacks such as George Whitelock, Andy Ellis, Casey Laulala, Wyatt Crockett, Owen Franks and Corey Flynn give the red and blacks serious ammunition.

Wellington have been applying some well-organised heat under the guidance of Jamie Joseph and Andre Bell but they will need to be sharp for tonight's start which doubles as a Ranfurly Shield defence against Otago.

The Air New Zealand Cup will involve 94 games before the winners will receive the sterling silver trophy, gilded in gold and standing on a black basalt base, on November 7.

A new champion may emerge, hopefully some exciting new coaches and a number of players who will show their skills are worthy of places in next year's last Super 14 campaign.