Rugby: Internationals return to boost provincial hopes

Tana is the obvious pick for Counties Manukau MVP. Photo / Dean Purcell

With 18 All Blacks about to start filtering back into the national provincial championship, the first half of the season could be viewed as a phoney war.

True to a point, but it also ignores the fact that 2010 is a pivotal year. It is not just top four or bust, the critical cut-off line for most unions comes at seven.

Those who make the top seven will take their place in next year's Premier division, while the rest will play the second-tier Championship.

Crossover games should prevent the Championship becoming a rugby wasteland, but life will be a lot more comfortable for provincial union administrators sitting above the cut-off line.

The Franchise Five tend to get stronger as the season gets deeper, but some need their injection of internationals more than others.

The 14 ITM Cup unions are assessed in order of their position on the table entering week eight.

CANTERBURY
The lowdown: There is something inevitable about Canterbury's march towards a third title on the bounce and eighth overall. The fact that they are top of the table going into week eight despite getting out of jail against Manawatu and Northland, drawing at home to Hawkes Bay and losing to Tasman, is remarkable. When the muse strikes, such as their 35-16 demolition against Auckland, they are still the best side in the country. With Sonny Bill Williams hitting his straps and a solid forward pack, the absence of Carter, McCaw and Read won't hurt as much as it should.

Mid-season MVP: Robbie Fruean has been the outstanding midfielder of the competition. His eight tries lead the charts, even after he missed week one with an irregular heartbeat.

Run-in:
* Taranaki (away)
* Wellington
* Otago (away)
* Southland (RS) (away)
* Counties
* Waikato (away)

Predicted finish: 50 points, 1st

SOUTHLAND
The lowdown: To describe Southland as well organised and gutsy does not do justice to the talent they have accumulated in Invercargill. There's only one thing stopping us declaring Southland semifinal certainties: the longer they keep hold of the Ranfurly Shield the more emotionally drained they will become. You might see Southland dropping games away from home they might normally have been expected to win. Take their reverse against Northland, for example.

Mid-season MVP: Jamie Mackintosh. He is the driving force behind this team and a try-scoring prop.

Run-in:
* Waikato (last night) (away)
* Auckland (RS)
* Taranaki (away)
* Canterbury (RS)
* Bay of Plenty (away)
* Wellington (RS)

Predicted finish: 42 points, 3rd

AUCKLAND
The lowdown: The wet-weather specialists have flown under the radar because they have had little chance to show any flair. A dark cloud has followed them around all season but it has a silver lining - the Auks are well placed for a strong finish. Apart from Southland in week nine, they have a favourable run in. They have backs who have spent two months waiting for some ball and they have some of the smartest loose forwards in the business.

Mid-season MVP: Matt Berquist. You wouldn't say his form has been vintage, but he knows what to do when it's teeming down and he kicks the goals that matter.

Run-in:
* Manawatu (away)
* Southland (RS) (away)
* Hawkes Bay
* Counties (away)
* Otago
* Tasman

Predicted finish: 47 points, 2nd

TARANAKI
The lowdown: This team could either make the semifinals or drop right out of the seven altogether so week nine's trip to Napier looms as pivotal. They have been mostly solid and sometimes better than that, but the well-constructed side might live to rue several wasted bonus point opportunities.

Mid-season MVP: Of their myriad imports, Manawatu fullback Kurt Baker appeals as the player who has done the most to rid Taranaki of its reputation as a solid, but stodgy, side.

Run-in:
* Canterbury
* Hawkes Bay (away)
* Southland
* Manawatu
* Wellington (away)
* North Harbour (away)

Predicted finish: 41 points, 4th

WELLINGTON
The lowdown: It's not being alarmist to say Wellington could be in trouble and even a win over the struggling Bay this weekend will be papering over some Grand Canyon-like cracks. If ever a coach needed the return of Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu and Piri Weepu it is Andre Bell. You cannot lose to Counties at home and Manawatu in the same season and be considered a genuine title contender.

Mid-season MVP: Julian Savea. The star of the under-20 world championships looks a bit special.

Run-in:
* Hawkes Bay
* Canterbury (away)
* Bay of Plenty
* North Harbour (away)
* Taranaki
* Southland (RS) (away)

Predicted finish: 38 points, 6th

WAIKATO
The lowdown: It's been a strange old season for Waikato. They ground down the Bay of Plenty and stole one at the death against Auckland to get their 2010 off to a flyer, before going down meekly to Taranaki and Wellington. But if any game sums up their split personality it was last week's against Hawkes Bay, where they had the ball locked up inside the Bay 22 with less than 30 seconds to go and three points up, and somehow contrived to walk away with a draw. Still, they have a friendly enough run in that should remove any top-seven anxiety.

Mid-season MVP: Liam Messam. There might be question marks about him at the highest level, but he's an NPC monster.

Run-in:
* Southland (last night)
* Tasman
* Northland (away)
* Otago
* Manawatu (away)
* Canterbury

Predicted finish: 41 points, 5th

COUNTIES MANUKAU
The lowdown: The best story of the year so far. Most people's pick for a wooden spoon battle with Manawatu, Counties' form has been such that a place in next year's premier division is a distinct possibility. Only once, against Waikato, have they been totally outclassed and in their six remaining fixtures they play four teams below them on the table. If they do sneak in - the semifinals appear to be slipping from their grasp - Milton Haig will have pulled off one of the great coaching jobs in New Zealand rugby history.

Mid-season MVP: Tana Umaga. It's a populist pick, possibly even a cliche, but Umaga has offered not only solidity in midfield, but the sort of intangibles it is pointless trying to explain in less than 500 words.

Run-in:
* Bay of Plenty (away)
* Northland
* North Harbour
* Auckland
* Canterbury (away)
* Hawkes Bay

Predicted finish: 36 points, 7th

NORTHLAND
The lowdown: They're good to watch. No team can break the line like the Cambridge Blues. You suspect there are too many foibles in their make-up for them to genuinely challenge. They tend to lose close games and they haven't won away from home since round one but it's fun watching them all the same.

Mid-season MVP: Jared Payne. Everything Payne does oozes class.

Run-in:
* Otago (away)
* Counties (away)
* Waikato
* Hawkes Bay (away)
* Tasman (away)
* Bay of Plenty

Predicted finish: 30 points, 9th

BAY OF PLENTY
The lowdown: Their demolition of Manawatu might be a sign the corner has been turned for the highly touted BoP, but there is little excuse for them getting so lost on the way there. It's been a two-steps-back, one-step-forward type of season, but Counties and Otago at home in the next two weeks offer the chance to change the momentum.

Mid-season MVP: Tanerau Latimer. He doesn't do the showy stuff, but the five-test All Black has been the most consistent of a flaky bunch this season.

Run-in:
* Counties
* Otago
* Wellington (away)
* Tasman (away)
* Southland
* Northland

Predicted finish: 35 points, 8th

TASMAN
The lowdown: After back-to-back wins over 2009 semifinalists Hawkes Bay and Canterbury, the rest of Tasman's season has been a dog's breakfast. Last week's flop against Otago was excruciating to watch. They don't have a particularly tough run in, but on current form they'll do well to win two of their remaining six matches.

Mid-season MVP: Steve Alfeld. In an uninspiring field, Alfeld has looked a decent acquisition at halfback and he kicks some decent goals too.

Run-in:
* North Harbour
* Waikato (away)
* Manawatu (away)
* Bay of Plenty
* Northland
* Auckland (away)

Predicted finish: 23 points, 10th

HAWKES BAY
The lowdown: Well, well, well. How the desperately-trying-to-be-mighty have fallen. The Bay's decline has been largely inexplicable. On the surface they recruited well, with Daniel Kirkpatrick replacing the dependable Matt Berquist and Kahn Fotuali'i adding real quality at No 9. But they've never really got it going, despite the promise of an away draw against Canterbury in the first round. Unlucky to be drawn to travel to the Low Island three times, that first match was in fact the high point of their trans-Cook Strait adventures. They have a tough month coming up.

Mid-season MVP: Hika Elliot. In a weak field, the bustling hooker has hustled about, making a nuisance of himself and trying to drag his team back to respectability. He might appear in the backs a bit often for everybody's liking, but he was the major reason they snuck an undeserved draw against Waikato last weekend.

Run-in:
* Wellington (away)
* Taranaki
* Auckland (away)
* Northland
* North Harbour
* Counties (away)

Predicted finish: 20 points, 11th

NORTH HARBOUR
The lowdown: When the squads were named before the start of the season most followers looked down Harbour's list, took a deep breath and thought, "Look out, this could hurt". With an All Black Very Good at the helm and an All Black Great as his wingman, you wondered if something special could be extracted from this group, but aside from the odd flash of promise they've made a truism out of the silk purse-pig's ear aphorism.

Mid-season MVP: Luke McAlister. By default. He should be doing even more. When the juices are flowing his class stands out like a diamond in a bucket of gravel. But he spends far too much time looking disengaged.

Run-in:
* Tasman (away)
* Manawatu
* Counties (away)
* Wellington
* Hawkes Bay (away)
* Taranaki

Predicted finish: 16 points, 13th

OTAGO
The lowdown: To think that coach Phil Mooney left sunny Queensland for this. There was plenty of local anger when Mooney was preferred to Balclutha boy David Latta for the job, but he quickly won over the locals by cunningly appointing Latta as his assistant and getting alongside the club burghers who matter. Otago are hamstrung by the fact that they have not recruited well and have simply fallen off the pace. Two wins in their last two games represent a small turnaround and they have a possibility of doubling that tally by season's end.

Mid-season MVP: Adam Thomson. He's the class act in a poor side, but is probably guilty of trying to do too much on his own.

Run-in:
* Northland
* Bay of Plenty (away)
* Canterbury
* Waikato (away)
* Auckland (away)
* Manawatu

Predicted finish: 17 points, 12th

MANAWATU
The lowdown: For a side like Manawatu to be successful, they need everything to fall in their favour. However, they started the season with a horrific injury list that was always likely to put them in the category of also-rans. Interestingly, they have been excellent against the giants - they should have beaten Canterbury and they did beat Wellington - but pitiful against middling sides such as Northland, Counties and Bay of Plenty.

Mid-season MVP: Aaron Good. The diminutive halfback has grown in confidence, if not size, after being part of Jamie Joseph's Maori side.

Run-in:
* Auckland
* North Harbour (away)
* Tasman
* Taranaki (away)
* Waikato
* Otago (away)

Predicted finish: 14 points, wooden spoon