Tom Marshall of Tasman Makos. Photo / Getty Images
Will it be the traditional provincial powerhouses of Canterbury and Auckland or the in-form comers Taranaki and Tasman?
That is today's ITM Cup semifinals tasty scenario in the Premiership division.
Top Premiership qualifiers Taranaki have it all to play for - a first top division provincial final is the gateway to their first crown. They have played well enough through most of 2014, seven straight wins are bookended by a draw, a loss, and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against Canterbury last Sunday. Now they face fourth qualifiers Auckland, who have enjoyed success against Taranaki at Yarrow Stadium in the recent past and are buoyed that their 35-22 defeat last month was only sealed late by a Charlie Ngatai intercept.
For those who confuse the fortunes of Blues rugby with Auckland, the province is into its fourth semifinal in the last five seasons, and has realistic designs on the silverware last claimed in 2007.
"We expect to do well. That's not arrogance," said coach Paul Feeney. "We've got a side that's always pretty good on paper. Making the semis is a minimum when I look at our squad. It's a matter of applying ourselves and getting it right on the day.
"We can definitely mix it with Taranaki ... the start is going to be important, but the battle up front and the physicality are going to be the keys to the game."
No 8 Peter Saili and wing George Moala are welcome returns from injury for Auckland. Taranaki have a settled unit, with Seta Tamanivalu, freshly signed by the Chiefs, a weapon in their midfield.
The Tasman Makos, who have shaped as everyone's second favourite team, outside of the top of the South Island, can arrest Canterbury's six-title streak in Nelson tonight. The Makos have played an effective, attractive and winning style of rugby in 2014, and they have some key men such as Marty Banks and Jimmy Cowan running the cutter.
Their forwards continue to be under-rated. But they will not be under-rated by Canterbury, to whom they dispensed a 38-10 hiding just a fortnight ago in Christchurch.
The Cantabs righted the ship after three straight losses with a meritorious win in New Plymouth last Sunday, and they have skipper and halfback Willi Heinz back in the fold. Scott Robertson's charges are chock-full of talent and still have the experience of three All Blacks to call on. They may have qualified third, but you write them off at your peril.
In the early kickoff, top Championship qualifiers Manawatu will be favourites to defeat the Southland Stags, who scraped into the semis but could well have stolen the Ranfurly Shield in Napier last Saturday.
The Turbos have played with nous and flair under the astute coaching of Jason O'Halloran, but will miss the injured, hard-nosed lock Mike FitzGerald.
Manawatu v Southland, Palmerston North, 2.05pm
Manawatu: Nehe Milner-Skudder, Nathan Tudreu, Jason Emery, Hamish Northcott, Newton Tudreu, Otere Black, Kayne Hammington, Nick Crosswell, Callum Gibbins (c), Heiden Bedwell-Curtis, Keepa Mewett, Fraser Stone, Ma'afu Fia, Rob Foreman, Hubert Buydens; Reserves: Nick Grogan, Chris Eves, Tom Hughes, Antonio Kiri Kiri, Jamie Booth, Jade Te Rure, Semisi Masirewa
Southland: Junior Ngaluafe, Bryan Milne, Mark Jackman, Willis Halaholo, Keanu Kahukura, Lima Sopoaga, Scott Eade, Elliot Dixon, Tim Boys, John Hardie, Micheal Fatialofa, Josh Bekhuis, JP Koen, Tua Tuapati, Jamie Mackintosh (c); Reserves: Dillan Halaholo, Morgan Mitchell, Michael Stewart, Bill Fukofuka, Tayler Adams, Jamie Verran, Cardiff Vaega
Taranaki v Auckland, New Plymouth, 4.35pm
Taranaki: James Marshall (c), Codey Rei, Seta Tamanivalu, Charlie Ngatai, Waisake Naholo, Marty McKenzie, Chris Smylie, Blade Thomson, Berny Hall, Mitchell Croswell, James Broadhurst, Riki Hoeata, Angus Ta'avao, Rhys Marshall, Mitchell Graham; Reserves: Sione Lea, Ryan Cocker, Mitchell Brown, Iopu Iopu-Aso, Jamison Gibson-Park, Jackson Ormond, Kurt Baker
Auckland: Lolagi Visinia, Melani Nanai, Hadleigh Parkes, TJ Faiane, George Moala, Gareth Anscombe, Leon Fukofuka, Peter Saili, Sean Polwart, Blake Gibson, Liaki Moli, Jack Whetton, Ofa Tu'ungafasi, Tom McCartney (c), Sam Prattley; Reserves: Gafatasi Su'a, Nic Barrett, Scott Scrafton, Nepia Fox-Matamua, Junior Poluleuligaga, Francis Saili, Simon Hickey
Tasman v Canterbury, Nelson, 7.05pm
Tasman: Robbie Malneek, Bryce Heem, Kieron Fonotia, Tom Marshall, James Lowe, Marty Banks, Jimmy Cowan, Liam Squire, Shane Christie (c), Peter Samu, Joe Wheeler, Alex Ainley, Ross Geldenhuys, Quentin MacDonald, Tim Perry; Reserves: Jesse MacDonald, Siua Halanukonuka, Tevita Cavubati, Vernon Fredericks, Billy Guyton, David Havili, Mitchell Scott
Canterbury: Richie Mo'unga, Patrick Osborne, Jack Goodhue, Adam Whitelock, Johnny McNicholl, Tom Taylor, Willi Heinz (c), Nasi Manu, Matt Todd, Luke Whitelock, Scott Barrett, Dominic Bird, Nepo Laulala, Ben Funnell, Daniel Lienert-Brown; Reserves: Codie Taylor, Alex Hodgman, Matt Symons, Tom Sanders, Mitchell Drummond, Rob Thompson, Milford Keresoma