Economic realities of the NPC

Having seen how next season's salary cap will operate, NPC bosses have been robbed of all hope the competition will be competitive in 2006.

As revealed by the Herald on Sunday last week, the cap will be set at $2 million, leaving every union doubtful as to whether players will be dispersed around the provinces.

NPC bosses were briefed by the New Zealand Rugby Union on Wednesday and returned to their provinces with little optimism for the competition's health next season.

All who attended the Wednesday meeting agreed to observe a code of silence but have expressed grave concerns, without divulging detail of their meeting.

The bigger unions say they will have to shed players under the new regime but don't believe their rejects will shift to smaller provinces. They remain convinced discarded players will head overseas, rather than stay in New Zealand and play for the likes of Manawatu or Northland.

With the cap now effectively agreed for next season, the bigger unions have no official avenue to fight the plans. Instead they are clinging to the hope they can force a U-turn by crushing the newly-promoted minnows and highlight the flawed thinking of expanding the premier division.

Manawatu's recent results - they lost heavily to North Otago last week - are causing the most concern. The bigger unions don't believe there are enough quality players in New Zealand to sustain a 14-team professional competition. They point to Manawatu as evidence and say only the deranged believe the Green Machine will get out of first gear by next season.

The fact long-term division one resident, Northland, have not won a game since 2002 is further evidence of the gulf in quality.

Running up cricket scores against poor quality opposition has commercial implications. Neither sponsors nor spectators are enthused at the prospect and ticket prices will have to be adjusted.

The mid-tier unions are disappointed the cap is not more severe so as to force the likes of Canterbury, Wellington and Auckland to release greater numbers of players. They can only see a preservation of the current scenario, where they lack the players and resources to win the championship or even make the playoffs.

They know their playoff hopes are entirely dependant on their respective coaching teams getting the very best out of their squads.

The smallest unions are fearful that, despite the attempted manipulation of market forces, they are going to fall foul of the reality of supply and demand economics.

Hawke's Bay have secured a significant signing in former All Black halfback Danny Lee but the more common recruitment theme in the lower reaches is frustration.
Aware they face a torrid baptism in their inaugural premiership season, the likes of Manawatu, Tasman Bay and Hawke's Bay are trying to lure talent to their respective regions.

The players they are targeting, though, are proving tough to sign. Many, despite lacking genuine top-flight experience, are demanding payments that are in excess of what the New Zealand market says they are worth.

They are able to play hardball because they have the safety net of alternative overseas offers. The stand-off is not just about money either. Many players who have been approached are fearful they will be overlooked for Super 12 contracts, a fact that is hammered home to them by their union chiefs, if they join a smaller union.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY