Differing scenarios in repechage chase

It's possible this Friday night Bay of Plenty will nail a place in the national championship quarter-finals.

And over in pool B in the repechage competition, the odds are about the same that its sole qualifier for the last eight won't be known until around 4.15pm on October 1, the final afternoon of this stage of the Air New Zealand Cup.

Why the disparity? The Bay, by virtue of dismissing what should have been a stronger Counties Manukau challenge, 38-11, in Mt Maunganui, know a five-point win in Napier this week against Hawkes Bay will advance them to the last eight out of pool A with a round to spare.

The Air New Zealand Cup rules state that if two teams are tied on points after the repechage, the team who won the clash between the two progresses.

Therefore, Counties Manukau must do two things this week: first get in a circle, pray and think nice things about Hawkes Bay; then get a five-point win over Manawatu at Mt Smart Stadium in the late game that night.

By kickoff, they'll know where they stand, as the Napier game starts two hours before Counties and Manawatu run out.

Counties didn't have the zip against the Bay, who have hit a solid patch after a disappointing start to the championship in which they lost their first three games.

With backline organiser Murray Williams rediscovering his confidence and contributing 23 points, the Bay are looking more like it.

Which could not be said for Taranaki.

They would have expected to beat Northland in New Plymouth. Instead they went to sleep, missed five shots at goal - three of which a schoolboy kicker would have been embarrassed about - and allowed a 7-0 lead to become a 7-23 deficit, only to wake up too late to save the situation.

It is a result which doesn't hurt the competition as a whole.

Southland's so-so 23-14 win against Tasman sets up an interesting fortnight. Northland are to host Southland on October 1 in the final game of the group. It's conceivable all could hang on that game.