Air NZ Cup preview: Smart money on a capital upset against Canterbury

Wellington v Canterbury
Westpac Stadium, 4.35pm

The lowdown: A surprising number of people are picking a Wellington victory in this fixture (see Bruton's Best Bets, p60, and our tipping panel below). Certainly the team from the capital are one of the few - the only? - sides in New Zealand rugby with a positive win-loss record against Canterbury and are known as the red-and-blacks' bogey team.

However, even though the major teams in this competition have been going through the motions so far and waiting until the business end of the competition, Canterbury were sitting only in an unaccustomed third place on the top six table. They will also not want to cede the psychological advantage to Wellington when it comes to the playoffs and, with Robbie Deans the coach most affected by the withdrawal of the All Blacks from Super 14 next year, a lot of this Canterbury side will want to show they can fill All Black boots.

However, Wellington are definitely the more experienced unit and the tight five struggle will be key. Young Canterbury locks Kevin O'Neill and Craig Clarke have been two of the stars of the Air NZ Cup so far but can expect some physical questions to be asked of them here. Wellington have obviously got their game faces on, leaving Conrad Smith on the bench and bringing the old war-horse Tana Umaga back at centre.

Watch out for: Wellington and New Zealand under-21 halfback Alby Mathewson. He sold a lovely dummy for a try against Tasman last week and keeps Jason Spice on the bench. But this is Canterbury and the presence of the young halfback will interest them a great deal. The battle of the No 7s between Ben Herring and Johnny Leo'o will also be vital.

What we think: Wellington - just. Wellington will take a physical approach into this game against a young Canterbury pack, which could just shade the set pieces and the loose. After that, it comes down to defence, who can unlock it the best, the bounce of the ball and some luck. And youngsters like Mathewson and Canterbury midfielder and goalkicker Cameron McIntyre can expect some real attention today.

Form: Wellington: W,W, bye, L, W, W, W (one loss against North Harbour).

Canterbury: W, W, L, W, bye, W (one loss against Waikato).

Wellington - Shannon Paku, Lome Fa'atau, Tana Umaga, Ma'a Nonu, Cory Jane, Jimmy Gopperth, Alby Mathewson, Thomas Waldrom, Ben Herring, Luke Andrews, Jeremy Thrush, Ross Filipo, John Schwalger, Mahonri Schwalger, Joe McDonnell (c). Reserves: Luke Mahoney, Anthony Perenise, Victor Vito, Serge Lilo, Jason Spice, Conrad Smith, Tamati Ellison.

Canterbury - Paul Williams, Scott Hamilton, Casey Laulala, Cameron McIntyre, Caleb Ralph, Stephen Brett, Andrew Ellis, Mose Tuiali'i, Johnny Leo'o, Kieran Read, Kevin O'Neill, Craig Clarke, Wyatt Crockett, Corey Flynn (c), Campbell Johnstone. Reserves: Steven Yates, Aaron Bancroft, Kevin Senio, Tone Kopelani, Ben Franks/Peter Borlase, Isaac Ross, Hayden Hopgood.