A north-south final - nothing else is certain

Rua Tipoki has been a steadying influence. Picture / Paul Estcourt

The fight for places in the 2005 NPC final looks to have Canterbury as a certainty for one spot and Auckland on reputation taking the other. Without doubt, Otago and North Harbour will have different ideas.

Down south, Canterbury have again hit form at the right time. The win against Auckland was clinical and I believe they have still more to show. If they can score four tries to nil with about 30 per cent of possession, just think how they could go with, say, 50 per cent plus?

Otago rattled them a couple of weeks ago but I doubt if Aaron Mauger and co will be as casual in defence as they were at Carisbrook that day. The Cantabs have a tradition of seeking revenge after a loss so Otago may get a good old flogging.

Against this is the feeling that Canterbury are already preparing for the final next week - never a clever idea in sport.

Otago's game against Waikato in the final round robin last weekend was poor. Instead of aggression and attack they were hesitant and assumed Waikato would roll over.

The forwards have enough to gain the required possession at the set pieces and the loose forward trio are fast enough to not let Richie McCaw wreck the game as he did against Auckland.

So it's the backs who must step up. In particular Nick Evans, who seems to have faded from the All Black radar and has lost the basics of kicking and sharp running which not so long ago made him a player of special class.

He must give the direction for the likes of Seilala Mapusua and Neil Brew to attack the line. Otago will need to throw caution to the wind to have any chance and even if everything goes well, it is hard to roll the Cantabs any time in October.

Auckland have usually had the better of North Harbour in the games that count. In fact, North Harbour have never beaten Auckland in the playoffs.

Both teams have developed significantly since Auckland's victory in round one. I think Harbour have played some tremendous rugby.

The scrum is at last strong enough to hold its own. Gone are the jellyfish and impostors. In Greg Rawlinson and Marty Veale they have genuine class at the lineout and both are athletes around the park. The loose forwards combine well and as a trio may have a better combination and understanding than Auckland can offer.

This forward pack as a unit just may be the best in the competition and forwards still win tight matches.

But what about the backs? Whereas Auckland have a popgun tactical kicking game, Harbour have Luke McAlister and Rua Tipoki to control territory and attack.

McAlister is playing great football and really appreciating the wisdom of Tipoki when required. Who would have thought Tipoki would be a calming influence on a side? Certainly the classic example of the poacher becoming the captain and gamekeeper.

Anthony Tuitavake has been the player of this year's NPC, so Mils Muliaina will need to bring his A game to control this guy in attack and defence. It seems strange that Auckland have left it to perhaps the last game of the season to bring back Keven Mealamu and Muliaina. Politics as part of sport?

With neither Tasesa Lavea nor Isa Nacewa having great kicking games, Auckland will again rely on running more than going for territory, which for Tipoki and Tuitavake might be like Christmas coming early.

Auckland will be hoping that their attack clicks and the defence doesn't concede too many points. But this year's North Harbour model have little regard for history and have more than enough of an all-round game to take them on. If that happens, there may be a change in the power base of the Blues' playing personnel, and Auckland management and directors may need to review matters.

With crowds down and no trophies, things may come to a head. Most players are re-signed again, but the coaches and directors may not feel quite so comfortable.

Who wants the win more? I suspect North Harbour - but, hey, with Auckland these days you never know.