How final Lions test will be won or lost

By WYNNE GRAY in Sydney

Offered the chance of attending any global sporting event this weekend, former Wallaby skipper Mark Ella chose to stay close to home.

Nothing would keep him away from Stadium Australia in Sydney.

Ella rated tonight's match between the Lions and the Wallabies as the biggest game of rugby in Australia since the Lions last toured, in 1989.

"It's one-all going into the third and deciding test, why wouldn't you be there?" he asked.

So how will the match pan out, where do the Lions or Wallabies have the edge, will Graham Henry or the retiring Rod Macqueen take the spoils?

* The back three:

The Wallabies are settled here with Matt Burke, Andrew Walker and Joe Roff, though Burke's defence is still fragile at times and he is not as calm as his opposite, Matt Perry.

The Lions have the frenetic energy of Jason Robinson and Austin Healey on the flanks to make up for their lack of size in defence. They should be given a roving commission which will test the Wallabies' defensive screen.

* Centres:

Brian O'Driscoll and Rob Henderson remain a menace, despite better defence from Daniel Herbert and Nathan Grey in Melbourne.

They can slice through from first-phase possession and if they can link more with Neil Back, the Lions will make huge headway. Herbert and Grey have barged on attack; they lack the deftness of their opposites, especially O'Driscoll.

* Halves:

George Gregan came back to his game in the second half at Melbourne, but must go another notch now that Stephen Larkham is out and unlikely to even make an appearance in the Tri-Nations.

His replacement, Elton Flatley, is workmanlike, without a great kicking game or the subtlety of Larkham.

A huge loss for the Wallabies.

Jonny Wilkinson is presumed fit, though there must be doubts. He is a class player with an allround game to orchestrate a Lions win.

Matt Dawson comes in after some rough form, but he has the cheek and energy to make things happen, and plenty of points to prove to his coach.

* Loose forwards:

George Smith is again the key for the Wallabies. If he can turn over some ball he will disrupt the Lions' rhythm and allow the Wallabies' counter-attack to operate.

Scott Quinnell's bullocking runs will be a huge test for Flatley's defence, while the return of Martin Corry will give the Lions better lineout options.

* Locks:

John Eales and Martin Johnson are mighty warriors and can be relied on to drive their packs, Justin Harrison is aggressive, perhaps the pick of the lineout jumpers in Super 12, but raw, and Danny Grewcock is becoming a much more influential tight forward alongside his captain.

* Front rows:

The Lions are bleeding about what happened in Melbourne.

That mistake will not be repeated and while there was great admiration for the new-look Wallaby combination, man for man they do not stack up against Tom Smith, Keith Wood and Phil Vickery.

Those reputations have to be reworked tonight, though.

* Referee:

New Zealander Paddy O'Brien will be in charge of the biggest game in his career.

He will be severe on players slowing the ball at the breakdown, where the Lions have infringed more than their opponents.

He may be called on for some early judgments, because this test does threaten to explode.

* The crowd:

A shade over 80,000 will pack the ground, with Australian officials making sure their seating plans leave the Wallabies seeing a ring of gold round the ground at eye-level rather than the scarlet mass of Lions supporters' jerseys on show at Brisbane.

About 15,000 Lions supporters have turned central Sydney into a British suburb.

* Defence and last quarter:

The impact of former league international Phil Larder has shown in the Lions' aggressive defence. Worries will be the tries they conceded in the last stages at Brisbane and the second half in Melbourne.

If the Wallabies can hang tough for the first 60 minutes, they seem to be able to go up a gear in the final quarter.

* Goalkicking and the maul:

Wilkinson v Burke. Not much difference, though Wilkinson has missed more than he should, and if he does not last the test, it will put even more heat on probable replacement kicker Dawson.

The Lions want to keep the ball up and driving more from lineouts, where O'Brien will penalise the Wallabies if they drag the maul down.

* The coaches:

Graham Henry v Rod Macqueen. Henry will work on the wounded mentality of his Lions after they let slip the second test, and the Wallabies, no matter the protests, will carry the extra motivation to do it for their departing coach.

* Prediction:

The Lions to scrape home in a test which lives up to Ella's and everyone's appetite.