Squad expansion opens tour door for injured outsiders

A couple of weeks ago, Graham Henry reckoned he had nailed 24 of the 32 spots for the All Black tour to England, France and Wales. That number has now risen to 28 and there is a good chance Waikato lock Keith Robinson is in that mix, poised to make the fairytale comeback that didn't look possible even a few months ago.

The 29-year-old has surpassed all expectations since returning from a two-year lay-off with back and knee issues. Robinson is prickly - a genuine hard nut who is happy to mix it up. He's also a direct lineout operator who works the space and then times the jump. Simple but hugely effective and in 2004, when Robinson last played test football, no one was moaning about the All Black lineout.

By expanding the tour party from 30 players to 32, assistant All Black coach Wayne Smith says the selectors have an opportunity to open the door for a number of players who missed out on the Tri Nations due to injury.

That list would include Robinson, James Ryan, Conrad Smith, Sione Lauaki and Nick Evans.

Ryan was maturing into an exceptional lock when he was struck down by a shoulder injury in March. Now that he's fit again, he will feature in the thinking and it might be that the selectors feel they have room to accommodate Ryan and Robinson alongside Chris Jack, Ali Williams and Jason Eaton.

"We have an opportunity to look at some players who have come back from injury, players who would have been first choice for us in the Tri Nations," says Smith. "The gut feeling with Keith is that because of the two years he has been out, the more he can play the better. He has had two years of conditioning and he's in very good nick and what he needs now is games. That doesn't guarantee him selection, though."

If they take five locks, it will probably be Greg Rawlinson who misses out.

Loose forward, as per usual, throws up a range of quandaries with so many options available. Richie McCaw, Jerry Collins and Rodney So'oialo can get packing. Presumably Reuben Thorne, given he is in the protected 22 to miss Super 14, is penned in, along with Chris Masoe.

Filling the remaining places depends on the forwards-backs split. If the selectors opt for 18 forwards, then there might be room for six loose forwards, with three hookers, four props and five locks. Sione Lauaki and Liam Messam will be contenders, with Andrew Blowers and Kieran Read outside chances.

With this panel's ability to surprise, Saimone Taumoepeau could travel as a prop and double as a hooker, freeing another place for a loose forward. The aerial expertise of Jono Gibbes could see him called up. Byron Kelleher and Piri Weepu are certainties at halfback and there are whispers of Waikato's Brendon Leonard having nudged into contention ahead of Jimmy Cowan and Andy Ellis.

Daniel Carter, Aaron Mauger and Luke McAlister are shoo-ins, as are Mils Muliaina, Leon MacDonald, Rico Gear, Joe Rokocoko and Siti-veni Sivivatu.

Then it comes down to the split again. If there is room for only 14 backs, then that leaves just three places. If Doug Howlett recovers, then Nick Evans, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Sam Tuitupou, Isaia Toeava and Richard Kahui are probably vying for just two places.

Nonu has been in such great form, he can't be left out. He creates so many opportunities for the All Blacks to convert his power into points that his occasional wayward execution has to be tolerated.

Smith is such a classy footballer when fully fit and in the groove that he deserves the opportunity to get back in that groove.

Having stuck with Toeava when the youngster was struggling to find his feet, it would be a tough call to drop him now he has shown regular bursts of quality.

But a summer in the gym would do him no harm and allow him to reach February stronger, faster and better equipped to cope with the physical battering he can expect as a Super 14 midfielder.

One other point of intrigue will be the specialist berths of halfback and hooker. The panel have sent out mixed messages about whether they want to take two or three to the World Cup.

There was some confusion a few weeks ago that they might even take four but Smith says: "Nothing is set in concrete. It has in the past been seen as a bit of luxury having three of each. The thinking at this stage is that we will probably go that way because of the distance and time involved in getting replacement players."

Possible All Black squad:

Carl Hayman, Tony Woodcock, Neemia Tialata, John Afoa, Keven Mealamu, Andrew Hore, Anton Oliver, Chris Jack, Ali Williams, Jason Eaton, James Ryan, Keith Robinson, Reuben Thorne, Jerry Collins, Richie McCaw, Chris Masoe, Rodney So'oialo, Sione Lauaki, Byron Kelleher, Piri Weepu, Andy Ellis, Daniel Carter, Nick Evans, Luke McAlister, Aaron Mauger, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Joe Rokocoko, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Rico Gear, Mils Muliaina, Leon MacDonald.