Ian Foster: 'Fozzie's going to Fozzie.' Photo / Getty Images
OPINION
With 106 days until the start of the Rugby World Cup, worried All Blacks fan Tim Brightwell looks for signs of gloom.
Observation: The bolters are playing themselves out of contention.
Analysis: The outside backs that were the surprises of the first half of Super Rugby have regressed to the mean. Shaun Stevenson was everyone’s favourite answer for the gap at fullback. His backline teammate Emoni Narawa was touted as the All Blacks’ next great strike winger. They started the season creating opportunities from limited ball, but as the campaign wears on — while the Chiefs still sit top of the table — this pair have been stiffled by New Zealand rugby’s great foe: any team that employs a rush defence.
Both will have the chance to stake their claim for higher honours as the Chiefs head into the playoffs, but as the Chiefs go so will their international hopes. If the Chiefs offence gets made to look like the pop-gun attack of previous years then Stevenson and Narawa will likely be on the outside looking in.
Worry-O-Meter: Arrive at work. Wonder if you left the stove on at home. 3/10
Observation: The Beauden Barrett management plan is putting us at risk.
Analysis: Barrett hobbling off with a bloody ankle on Friday night would have given the most confident All Blacks fan cause for concern. While we later learnt it was a minor gash requiring a few stitches, the average fan should be worrying about the management plan being put around the former world player of the year.
Looking at his stats for the year, he’s been asked to play deeper in the backline, away from the ball and — as of Friday night — he’d averaged one tackle every 36 minutes. There are rumours about this being part of the Blues masterplan to secure that championship that eludes them. It could also be a way to ensure that you get the best from the elder statesmen of the backline. Regardless, it’s not giving Barrett the gametime or the opportunity to work on elements of his game which were weaknesses in previous seasons — aimless tactical kicking which gives away possession which ball-hungry teams love, and a questionable defence against direct runners. Miracle tackles are good for highlight reels but can’t be relied on for 80 minutes. World Cup opposition will take pleasure from knowing our starting fullback has been light on the tackle count.
Worry-O-Meter: “It’s funny how when you look out the window, you can kind of see the wing wobble, eh...” 4/10
Observation: No one is putting their hand up to wear the No 6 jersey.
Analysis: Even Grant Nisbett extolling the virtues of the hard-running Shannon Frizell on Saturday afternoon couldn’t hide the fact the All Blacks will have a problem on the blindside. A Jerome Kaino-style enforcer is not going to walk through the door between now and the start of the Rugby Championship. This will force the All Blacks into playing someone out of position. The two best options? Scott Barrett, who provides the best locking cover and has daylight between him and the next-tier locking option of Tupou Vaa’i, or Dalton Papali’i, who has put his hand up as the second-best No 7 in the country (behind Ardie Savea). The national fascination with trying to have as many good players on the field by playing them out of position is alive and well and will continue to yield the same results as it has in previous tournaments.
Worry-O-Meter: “Cullen at centre? Yeah, that could work...” 5/10
Observation: All Blacks’ player management policy will leave our top players underdone come the World Cup.
Analysis: There are a maximum of 10 games between now and the start of the World Cup for our top players. Between the final rounds and playoffs of Super Rugby Pasifika and five test matches, there will be limited playing time for the squad.
Take out teams that get knocked out of the playoffs — it’s likely three NZ teams will make it through to semis — and the need to use the Rugby Championship as a testing ground for different combinations and you start to run out of meaningful gametime for our top players. Intra-squad scrimmages are one thing, but I doubt people will ever claim that the best rugby match ever played was one of the training games for the 2023 All Blacks — the 1992 US men’s basketball Dream Team this ain’t. The Hurricanes standing down Savea, Jordie Barrett or Tyrel Lomax to play against a full strength Chiefs side of Samisoni Taukei’aho, Sam Cane, Brodie Retallick, Anton Lienert-Brown and Damian McKenzie on Saturday night was a short-sighted move that will show up when those players have to run out against International competition.
Worry-O-Meter: New neighbours shift in. You notice their teenager carrying a drum set into the house. 6/10
Observation: Fozzie is going to Fozzie.
Analysis: What do you do when you are in your last days as the All Blacks coach, you’ve got a major tournament that will be the defining moment of your professional career in just over 100 days and your crop of potential bolters start to regress to the mean? You select tried-and-true older players who have had question marks over them in previous years and who may have passed their use-by date. Unsure about your midfield? Here comes Jack Goodhue. Need locking depth? Try Patrick Tuipulotu. Need to shore up the front row? Dane Coles and Nepo Laulala are on speed dial.
When Ian Foster said that there were some All Blacks who would need to up their game to avoid the selection axe, anxious rugby fans read this as a tactic to get those players to lift their games, rather than a promise that change was coming. Fozzie won’t take the risk that he might need to get a different result out of his team.
Worry-O-Meter: A letter arrives with “Ministry of Transport” written on the envelope. 7/10
Observation: The locking stocks for the World Cup 23 are looking pretty bare.
Analysis: When your third-best locking option is also your best option at No 6 you’ve got a problem. Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick have both had injuries and both are at an age where lingering niggles are a constant risk. Throw in Fozzie’s tendency to back tried and true players and there’s a good chance that the 2023 World Cup locking options will be the same as the ones used in 2019.
Worry-O-Meter: “Thanks for coming into the clinic today. We need to talk about the growth on your arm...” 8/10
Observation: Super Rugby is no longer an appropriate competition to select or prepare the All Blacks for a World Cup.
Analysis: Any competition where the dismal four-win Highlanders are still in contention to make the playoffs is not a suitable testing ground for an international side. In 2019 — a year where we were also underdone, had players playing out of position, had questions about Beauden Barrett’s form — at least the competition still had South African teams, the rising Argentinian Jaguares, and feisty Japanese Sunwolves. Competitive front-row battles and the top players from half the countries that made the knockout round of the Rugby World Cup were on display.
This year’s competition has shown that the best thing for competitive balance is when the top teams have to rest players. If it’s not getting punters into the stadium, getting viewers on TV or preparing an international team for competition what is the point of Super Rugby? A comprehensive international calendar for New Zealand representative teams — and perhaps a good-old Possibles v Probables game — would have been a great build-up rather than persisting with the sunk cost of Super Rugby.
Worry-O-Meter: The Prime Minister and the director general of health will address the country at a 1pm briefing. 9/10
At 15, Greg Cooper was told he had only six months to live.