Rugby: Who are part of the World Cup exodus?

Jared Payne. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Players everywhere will be on the move later this year.

Most of the traffic will be flowing into France, with big numbers also heading to Japan.

South Africa and Australia will be net exporters but, as always, the country that will lose the most players will be New Zealand.

Already, the Chiefs and Blues are staring at massive holes in their 2012 playing squads. The other three will have them as well - maybe not as extensively but they will be there.

The exodus is gathering pace and New Zealand could enter 2012 desperately short of quality Super Rugby players and staring at a bleak season.

The list of those definitely leaving includes John Afoa, Brad Thorn, Mike Delany, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Jared Payne, Matt Berquist, John Schwalger, Dwayne Sweeney, Tyson Keats and Kahn Fotuali'i. That list will double, probably even triple, in the coming weeks and could include some of the biggest names - Dan Carter, Mils Muliaina and Sonny Bill Williams.

To an extent, the market is braced for this. The pattern has been developing in the professional age. The post-World Cup exodus is expected.

But the New Zealand Rugby Union has been taken by surprise at some of the losses this year, several of which haven't been confirmed.

The likes of Thorn, Muliaina, maybe even Carter, are seen as inevitable casualties; senior players who have reached the end of their time.

But Payne threw them, so did Afoa and Cory Jane, Ben Smith and Luke McAlister, should they all confirm their departures, will cause considerable consternation.

These are younger players on the way up; men with potentially big roles to play in the next World Cup cycle.

The pain of their departures should they leave will be felt more in Super Rugby than in the test arena.

The global appetite for players is unprecedented. The Welsh, English and Irish have also become exporters.

Not in the same volumes as the Sanzar nations, perhaps, but they have all lost enough to drive them into the market in search of replacements. They have money and they have intention - as has already been witnessed by Ulster's snatching of Payne and Afoa.

The new element which perhaps hasn't been factored into the wider picture is the potential of South Africa and Australia to become predators. The Australian franchises have already shown they want to shop here. Willie Ripia, Jed Robinson, Mike Harris, Greg Somerville, Hoani Mac- Donald, Kevin O'Neill and Sosene Anesi are currently contracted to Australian teams.

Where the Australians did sharp business last year was in the ITM Cup. The Waratahs snaffled Afa Pakalani from Auckland and the Brumbies took Henry Speight from Waikato. The Brumbies, having just confirmed Jake White as their new coach, will no doubt begin a smart and orderly recruitment process to rebuild the franchise, while the Rebels, buoyed by their over-achievement in year one, will know they have to keep improving their squad to maintain fan interest.

The Lions are another side for New Zealand to be wary of. Coached by John Mitchell and Carlos Spencer and now backed by wealthy investors, the Lions have the ability to lure New Zealand talent. Mitchell has already sounded the warning.

"It [losing] is a cultural issue here, it has been here for some time, and clearly we are going to have to invest in the future of this organisation," said Mitchell last week. "The investors are certainly going to have to put their money where their mouth is."

It seems, then, that a food chain has developed. The French and Japanese are at the top. The Celts and England in the middle, South Africa and Australia next and New Zealand at the bottom - players here are vulnerable to advances from around the world.

In the past, New Zealand has just about coped in post-World Cup years. The All Blacks rebuilt in 2004 - winning nine of their 11 tests after a midyear collapse. In 2008, the All Blacks weathered a difficult start to the year to win the Tri Nations, a Grand Slam and 13 of their 15 tests.

It was a hard slog in both years; the All Blacks forced to inject a raft of inexperienced players into the national set-up perhaps a year or two earlier than the coaches wanted. Much tougher to hide in those post-World Cup years was the damaging effect the exodus had on Super
Rugby.

In 2004, the defending champion Blues were poor, the Hurricanes, semi finalists in 2003, were barely midtable and the Highlanders fell deeper into their malaise.

In 2008, the Blues were mediocre, the Chiefs only so-so and the Highlanders finished 11th. The depth just wasn't there to fill five teams effectively and, while it can't be measured, everyone agrees the All Blacks are affected when they accommodate individuals out of disappointing Super Rugby campaigns.

The worry for next year is that the likes of the Chiefs and Blues in particular are badly affected; that they suffer bad campaigns as a result of having to select development squads.

Should they be more aggressive on the recruitment front? Each New Zealand team is allowed to buy two overseas players. That option was rejected in 2011 but must surely now hold some appeal.

The market is open. Everyone else is using it, why not New Zealand? A handful of Australian players could no doubt be tempted over here -men like Christian Lealiifano and Daniel Halangahu have ample Super Rugby experience.

They aren't going to set the world on fire but they would strengthen New Zealand's squads next year.

Or why not think even bigger? James O'Connor, with strong New Zealand connections, would be an outstanding acquisition for the Blues. Make him an offer he can't refuse and then force the Australian Rugby Union to see how wedded they are to their policy of only selecting Wallabies playing in Australia.

In time, New Zealand will rebuild. The Blues and Chiefs will eventually come right. They will take the hit in 2012 - call it a rebuilding period and wait for the next generation of players to find their feet.

There has been plenty of contracting success at the top tier. The likes of Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock, Owen Franks, Israel Dagg, Tony Woodcock, Richard Kahui and Conrad Smith are all locked in beyond this year.

But New Zealand could be dangerously short of Super Rugby talent in 2012; shorter than it has ever been.

The player market here is under siege in a way it has never been. The transfer market is there to help them offset the fluctuations - to ensure they have continuity of quality personnel and certainty around their planning.