Rugby: How the Lions will change their strategy

Johnny Sexton will play at first five for the Lions. Photo / Brett Phibbs

The All Blacks know the Lions are going to come back at them in Wellington harder and more determined.

They can now assume the Lions are also going to play that little bit wider, more freely and throw more resource into the breakdown to try to stop the All Blacks building momentum with big ball carriers punching off Aaron Smith.

That assumption is based on the team the Lions have selected for the second test which has three personnel changes from the first - but might as well be a totally different side given the effect the new players will have.

The selection of tour captain Sam Warburton in the unfamiliar No 6 jersey is being viewed as evidence the Lions have changed their thinking on how to approach the breakdown.

In Auckland they didn't commit numbers to the ball - preferring instead to keep a solid defensive line across the field and try to build the pressure through their linespeed. It was a tactic that worked against the New Zealand Maori and Crusaders, but the All Blacks were able to nullify it by punching short off halfback Smith and then quickly recycling to force the lions to continually back pedal.

Warburton's key strength is his ability to get over the ball and either slow it steal and he will work in tandem with Sean O'Brien to be more of a nuisance in that area.

"The big thing that they will look to change," predicted All Blacks coach Steve Hansen, "Is the breakdown. I think they will be a lot more competitive in there. I think they went in with a mindset that we will only put one person in and have everyone else on their feet so they could get their linespeed.

"That will force some thinking in their camp and this is why coaches love coaching and players love playing because it is cut and thrust. What are they going to do and what are we going to do in response?"

That greater presence on the ground and over the ball will see the Lions, however, give up a valuable lineout resource in Peter O'Mahony who has been dropped out of the 23.

Maro Itoje has been promoted to start ahead of his club and country teammate George Kruis and that is presumably designed to shore up the lineout as well as to reward the 22 year-old for his strong efforts on tour so far.

The decision to select both Johnny Sexton and Owen Farrell is not unexpected, but is perhaps surprising that the Lions have waited until the second test to start with these two as a combination.

Sexton comes in at No 10 with Farrell shifting to 12 and that presents the Lions with significantly more attacking weapons than they had in Auckland where they started with the muscular Ben Te'o at 12.

With Sexton and Farrell in tandem, the Lions have two decisions-makers, two big kickers and two distributors. They are sacrificing the direct gainline running of Te'o to give themselves the opportunity to shift the ball wider.