KEY POINTS:
Eddie Jones, the man who engineered the All Blacks' semifinal exit from the last World Cup, has pinpointed South Africa as the one major threat to New Zealand's bid to win the Webb Ellis trophy this year.
Jones says the All Blacks deserve their red-hot favourites tag, but
has re-ignited the debate about their lineout despite signs of improvement on last year's northern tour.
The former Wallaby coach, who has taken the reins at Queensland, told the Herald that while Australia would improve, neither they nor hosts France would match the All Blacks.
The All Blacks go into the season as staggering 8-15 World Cup favourites, with 6-1 France heading a trailing pack.
The World Cup is nine months away, but will never be far from the headlines in a season which opens with the Super 14 kickoff this weekend.
Despite South Africa's struggles, Jones rates them as major chances to tip New Zealand over, primarily because of lineout prowess.
Jones is as well placed as any coach to deliver an early season World Cup verdict, given his vast Super 12/14 and international experience, and having coached in the Northern Hemisphere last year.
A stint at Saracens instilled Jones with increased respect for the importance of set pieces. The All Blacks' lineout, he says, remains their Achilles heel.
The selection of Jerry Collins at No 6 meant they were one jumper short. Rodney So'oialo and Richie McCaw were "pinch hitters" only capable of the odd lineout grab.
Chris Jack was superb around the field but his lineout work did not match that. Ali Williams had "matured" but could still unravel under pressure. When asked for a locking alternative, he bypassed Keith Robinson and nominated Otago's James Ryan - "a lineout technician" - as the best possible solution.
"The All Blacks deserve to be favourites and I really admire the way Graham Henry, Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen have managed their team. Outstanding," said Jones. "The only way the All Blacks can't win the World Cup is because of their lineout.
"Because Jack struggles at the front it puts a lot of pressure on the middle. Jack's lineout work hasn't improved like the rest of his game.
"South Africa have the players to put their lineout under the pump - they just need good field position.
"The All Blacks gave up on their tricks and went to a non-movement lineout late last year but it won't work in future. Other sides will easily figure it out. With Victor Matfield running South Africa's lineout defence, they can cause the All Blacks a lot of problems. Their plan should be to kick the All Blacks back early, then pressure their lineout. They can win it through kicking their goals.
"South Africa were missing six or seven starting players last year. They are the big threat to the All Blacks."
Jones said an Australian team in top gear would provide the pacesetting All Blacks with the greatest challenge because they struggled against their ability to "make the ball a moving target." But Australia's rebuilding would take another year.
"Unless Bernard Laporte has been foxing, France have lost their way on attack."