Accident, rather than design, means All Blacks fans will now be able to see what many have wished for some time: a side without Sam Cane, confronted by stiff opposition.
Wales will be all that and more, almost certainly buoyed by the mercurial nature of this All Blacks campaign— good one week, frustrating the next. It will be fascinating to see how the top side performs, with most predicting that Dalton Papali’i will take over the openside flank.
Not that anyone expects coach Ian Foster to change his mind about selecting Cane when he is fit. You get the feeling Foster would choose his captain even if Cane had been cryogenically frozen.
Papali’i was a star turn off the bench against Japan — just as well, as he appeared to be wearing Liberace’s hair and Cane played pretty well. One passage — Japan’s last try — saw the All Blacks skipper make three tackles in less than 20 seconds, archetypal Cane; a heroic effort after he’d busted his cheekbone.
It counted for nothing only because Anton Lienert-Brown, almost certainly suffering from a bit of ring rust, suddenly decided to move his defensive position wider, leaving too big a hole for Cane to plug close in. Japan cashed in on a rookie defensive error.
Foster will likely be unwilling to shift Ardie Savea from eight to seven even though Hoskins Sotutu was one of the few against Japan who advanced his case — for part of the second half anyway.
Other than the midfield — which now numbers seven players contesting four places in next year’s World Cup squad — few selection decisions appear difficult this week. Foster has already embraced selections many rugby followers interpreted as a priority for saving his job rather than building talent. You felt for some of those who had little game time and who subsequently played their way out of top team calculations (Stephen Perofeta, Tupou Vaa’i, Finlay Christie).
Which poses another interesting scenario: will the All Blacks continue their highly unreliable run-it, side-to-side style or will they, faced with a northern hemisphere team, finally adopt a tighter, more direct game plan?
The battle lines are particularly clear in the women’s World Cup. The Black Ferns, should they meet England in the final, will attempt to run them off their feet. England — though their coach says they have other qualities they haven’t yet shown — will use set pieces and rolling mauls to drive the Ferns off the park.
The difference is the Ferns have yet find anyone who can withstand their running game. The All Blacks? Not so much. Japan gave yet another example of how to beat this under-achieving New Zealand team who seem to insist on being adventurous, even though that approach is now becoming commonplace, even tedious. Opponents are waiting for it.
Hoskins Sotutu was one of the few against Japan who advanced his case. Photo / Photosport
The recipe remains the same: attack the shaky All Blacks lineout (and the scrum if possible); slow the breakdowns down and, if they under-populate it, flood it and take the ball; use the box kick and/or the high kick accurately so you can dispute possession; rolling mauls.
Japan’s kicking game wasn’t up to much (not as bad as the All Blacks) — but it didn’t need to be. They breached the All Blacks defence too many times with ball in hand.
So far, Foster and co. seem super-glued to the current style; they appear to think it’s a matter of execution as opposed to an effective game plan. They often make me think of Brendon McCullum’s Black Caps when they began their attack-at-all-costs style — which inevitably went wrong sometimes and made them look a bit foolish.
“That’s the way we play,” was the explanation, accompanied by a shrug, and it worked out pretty well for them.
The All Blacks are held to a higher standard. It’s a moot point whether this team will continue their running style (though it’s increasingly hard to call it that when good, committed defences so often stop them in their tracks) through to the World Cup and then adopt a tighter, more test-match game plan.
Their kicking from hand, for example, doesn’t seem up to it and they often look disorganised. In contrast, the innovative tries they scored from set-piece moves (to Brodie Retallick and Sevu Reece) were laugh-out-loud moments and may encourage them to try their hand more, though it’s doubtful England will fall for it.
That’s the problem with showing your hand too far ahead of a tournament like next year’s. Defence coaches work you out.
In the few times the All Blacks have muscled up, played it tighter and drawn in defences, they have looked good. Certainly Jason Ryan seems to want to move closer to that with his view they need to return to the platform they set through strong, direct carries and cleans, and set piece accuracy, in their backs-to-the-wall Johannesburg victory over the Boks.
There’s also a clue in the continued selection of props Nepo Laulala and Ofa Tuungafasi, scrum experts both. They could be there solely as back-up and for their considerable experience — or they may be a signal the All Blacks’ focus on the scrum has yet to be sharpened.
