If there is one big feel-good factor in the 28-man All Blacks XV squad to play two matches in Europe in November, it must be North Harbour and Chiefs first five-eighth Bryn Gatland.
Gatland has grown into a star this year; his elevation to a black jersey (if notthe black jersey) is soundly deserved. Always strong in his kicking from hand and at goal, this year Gatland's form for the Chiefs and Harbour has seen him greatly improve his running and support play – and he has always been a brave and capable defender.
His selection is closely followed in warmth terms by that of loose forward Marino Mikaele-Tu'u, who has consistently turned in good performances over three years but is still only 24.
Feel-good factor is one thing. Clambering over the bodies in front of you to get to the top is quite another.
Gatland has overtaken one-test All Black Josh Ioane in the first-five stakes – but you wonder how he might advance much further. Damian McKenzie has also been named at 10 in the All Blacks XV squad – though only three outside backs have been chosen, leading some to believe McKenzie will play fullback in a least one of the tour matches.
So 27-year-old Gatland is ranked behind McKenzie, Stephen Perofeta, Beauden Barrett and Richie Mo'unga. Fifth-choice first-five probably doesn't augur all that well for the future.
It calls to mind another first-five, Lima Sopoaga – who had a brilliant test debut against South Africa in 2015 but remained in the shadow of Barrett. When McKenzie and Mo'unga arrived, Sopoaga's star dimmed; an intercept pass to help lose the third Bledisloe Cup match in Brisbane in 2017 one of his last acts before heading off to play in England and France.
However, at least Gatland has the opportunity to play his way in. Unlike Pita Gus Sowakula – the big Fijian-born No 8, an All Black one moment but the next not wanted in the back-up line-up, even with Ethan Blackadder and Cullen Grace injured and unavailable. Professional sport can be cruel.
Similarly, a few names anticipated to make the squad didn't. North Harbour winger/fullback Shaun Stevenson had a fine NPC and seemed close because of his utility value – although he still shows a tendency to throw the misguided pass in the tackle.
Big midfielder Thomas Umaga-Jensen and Blues fullback Zarn Sullivan also had plenty of support, though both may have suffered injuries at the wrong time. That could explain the presence of the Blues' tough Bryce Heem in the midfield. He has Worcester and Toulon on his CV, but 33 seems a strange age to be blooded when 28-year-old Tasman and Moana Pasifika's Levi Aumua is also there for midfield muscle.
Thomas Umaga-Jensen was unlucky in missing out an All Blacks XV selection. Photo / Photosport
That's the other downside about spec teams like the All Blacks XV so close to a World Cup – if their path seems irretrievably blocked, they may increase the numbers of New Zealand players who quit the country after a World Cup cycle, seeking a fresh payday elsewhere.
Take prop, for example. One to miss out was 22-year-old Waikato and Chiefs loosehead Ollie Norris. Maybe he hasn't quite completed his scrummaging education yet but he is one of the most athletic ball carriers among the props.
He has now learned that, including the injured Joe Moody, there are 12 props ahead of him – about half of them looseheads. Norris was born in Australia; he may feel there is a brighter future there. Promising Hawke's Bay hooker Tyrone Thompson seemed an All Black in waiting; now he is no more than seventh in line, behind Samisoni Taukei'aho, Dane Coles and Codie Taylor in the All Blacks and Asafo Aumua, George Bell and Brodie McAlister in the All Blacks XV.
At lock, the Crusaders' Quinten Strange came close to All Blacks selection a couple of years ago. Now he finds himself no higher than ninth in the rankings, with the injured Josh Lord ahead of him as well as the seven locks chosen for the northern tours.
Same goes for injured Blues lock/loose forward Tom Robinson. That place has gone to Canterbury's hard-nosed Dominic Gardiner after a terrific NPC campaign which reminded of the previous Canterbury/Crusaders/All Blacks utility Andy Earl.
Gardiner is part of a loose forward trio that played superbly in this NPC. Billy Harmon has made selection – at the cost of Tom Christie, a fellow No 7 and the kind of player others automatically want on their side. He is an in-the-trenches footballer who regularly tops the tackle count and burgles ball consistently.
He'd tackle a runaway bus, that bloke, and probably bring it down – but Harmon offers more going forward; he got the tick.
Other All Blacks XV selections which look promising include two 21-year-olds – lock Zac Gallagher and in-form fullback/first-five Ruben Love. He could yet threaten McKenzie, while Christian Lio-Willie, a blindside/No 8 with ball-carrying ability and a big tackle, could help solve the All Blacks problems at No. 6.
