KEY POINTS:
The French have a problem with rugby in the Northern Hemisphere autumn.
They're more interested in searching for truffles in the woods and forests, than for a loosehead prop or lock. A Frenchman interested in only rugby is considered a poor unfortunate.
Thus, say the locals, New Zealand
will win tomorrow.
Graham Henry might produce one of his Miss Piggy expressions at such an attitude. Perhaps with good reason.
New Zealand might not have hundreds of years of history to recall, but they do have the Battle of Nantes writ large upon their national psyche.
By curious coincidence, it is 20 years almost to the day since one of New Zealand rugby's most notorious affairs.
Comfortable winners over the French in Toulouse, Brian Lochore's men were taken by storm seven days later as Jacques Fouroux's side threw everything at them, to be level 3-3 at halftime, and winners 16-3 at the final whistle, with the odd torn All Blacks scrotum as memento. That is what the French can do when aroused.
But few Frenchmen expect victory in Lyon tomorrow. They don't believe they've got a back row to stand up to the pulverising physicality of Jerry Collins, Richie McCaw and Rodney So'oialo. Thierry Dusautoir (95kg), Julien Bonnaire (103kg) and Elvis Vermeulen (107kg) don't appear lightweights. But against the All Black trio, they look it.
Neither Yannick Nyanga nor Serge Betsen are considered up for the job. At 33, Betsen's day may be done, although if the French loose forward trio are outplayed this weekend, he could feature in Paris. Nyanga ought to be there, but just isn't. That's simply a French decision.
Vermeulen returns 10kg lighter than before New Zealander Vern Cotter arrived at the No 8's club, Clermont-Auvergne.
Cotter says he is a robust player who carries the ball well and defends with commitment. But the French have other concerns, principally that they never peak in November. The powerful club Stade Toulouse are not even in the top two of the league now, while defending champions Biarritz languish in fifth.
Only last week, Toulouse lost 24-16 to Agen for whom the brilliant fullback Pepito Elhorga played superbly. But not well enough to get into Bernard Laporte's French XV. Why? "Every time he plays in the French side he almost vomits he is so afraid," said one French rugby writer.
Others are missing through injury. Toulouse's brilliant centre Benoit Baby, the inventive Thomas Castaignede, Frederic Michalak and Biarritz lock Jerome Thion were all ruled out through injury.
Damien Traille moves from centre to first five-eighths, and that's no gamble for he was one of the stars when France beat South Africa in Cape Town in June. Traille offers far greater solidity than the fragile, erratic genius Michalak. But if Traille was injured, Yannick Jauzion would move to 10, which would be a gamble.
The front row is exclusively Parisien, with the more rugged Olivier Milloud and Nicolas Mas kept back. Expect them to come into consideration if the All Blacks are dominant in this phase in Lyon.
There is some pace behind the scrum, but the key is, can France stop the All Black juggernaut up front?
Those old November distractions may come to bear. French players are not very fit at this time of year, is one school of thought.
But consult your history books and you'll find similar talk 20 years ago. Nantes was the consummate answer to that kind of idle chatter.
We can expect the All Blacks to be pre-armed by such knowledge.
Head-to-head record
New Zealand against France:
P 41 W 30 L 10 D 1 For 931 Against 544
In France:
P 20 W 13 L 6 D 1 For 431 Against 270
Biggest win: 54-7 (Wellington, 1999)
Biggest loss: 22-8 (Christchurch, 1994)
Highest scorers in a test:
29 Andrew Mehrtens, New Zealand (Paris, 2000);
28 Christophe Lamaison, France (London, 1999)
Last five results
2004: At Paris, won 45-6
2003: At Sydney, won 40-13
2003: At Christchurch, won 31-23
2002: At Paris, drew 20-20
2001: At Wellington, won 37-12
Peter Bills is a rugby writer for Independent News & Media
