KEY POINTS:
The expectation is for the All Blacks to give France a sound thrashing tomorrow night.
How dare they turn up with a second-rate team, etc etc, the critics have howled. I don't think it will be quite as straightforward as that.
Traditionally the All Blacks don't perform at
peak in the first test of any season, no matter who they are playing. There are several All Blacks in the team who have either shown little recent form or have not even played.
Despite talk from the coaches and captain, the All Blacks will be thinking a win is a formality. That's not great mental preparation for a test.
Modern rugby is all about researching the opposition, identifying strengths and weaknesses and following a pre-determined game plan to suit.
The problem against this French team is that little is known about most of the individuals. What I do know is the French internal competition is probably the best in Europe and the country would compete with New Zealand and South Africa for genuinely having the most depth of talent at the top level.
Graham Henry has stated that all 30 players in his squad will get game time against France and Canada over the next three weekends, allowing the selectors to firm up on the decisions and selection patterns made over the past 18 months.
I don't expect any significant changes to the current squad. But questions will be asked if things don't go to plan.
I will be very interested to see how Chris Masoe and Reuben Thorne perform. Masoe is the backup No 8 and, like Rodney So'oialo, does not have the height and weight normally associated with the position.
If So'oialo gets injured, would Masoe take over, or would another specialist be introduced? At the moment I suspect the latter.
Masoe needs to show he has the smarts to cope with the position, particularly defensive patterns and combinations with the halfback at scrum time.
Everyone loves to knock Thorne for not having game presence. Initially Henry was not a fan either, but once back in the group, Thorne has not been left out again.
I suspect the selectors place as great a value on his contribution off the field as on. Henry is now the fourth All Black coach to recognise the value of Thorne to the team. They can't all be wrong, so he must have some special qualities.
But, like Masoe, I wonder if Jerry Collins were to sustain a major injury whether Thorne would take over the No 6 jersey against the likes of South Africa. What position will Troy Flavell fill - as a replacement lock or No 6? Probably lock - but again, is he really tall enough to compete at lineout time?
Twenty minutes at No 6 may show if he still has the ability to play with mobility and defend sideways rather than just front-on.
Of the backs, I think Piri Weepu could flourish against an underprepared French defensive pattern.
Out further we may see something special from Isaia Toeava. There have been a couple of false starts at test level but he now seems to have the confidence to match the youthful brilliance.
His test will be to organise the midfield defence and talk. If he gives these French half a metre they will be gone.
Joe Rokocoko must be the luckiest player around at the moment with no game time and only memories of form for Henry and co to select him on.
He needs the ball to come his way early and hopefully the confidence will return. If he tries to force things and tries too hard it could turn bad.
Ditto for Leon Macdonald. If he can do the basics the rest will follow.
A prediction? The All Blacks to win easily but not everything will go to plan. But then it wouldn't be a traditional test season opener without a few hiccups.