Gregor Paul: What Silver Lake critics are missing about the All Blacks' future

OPINION:

There have been many credible voices suggesting that should New Zealand Rugby strike a deal with private equity group Silver Lake, that the All Blacks schedule will suddenly be crammed with tests for which the only real purpose will be to make money.

Be warned say the doomsayers, tests such as the one the All Blacks are playing this week in Maryland against the USA will become more frequent as the new investment partners look to monetise their asset every way they can.

The theory is that Silver Lake, should they be granted permission to buy a 7.5 per cent stake in NZR's future revenue, will take the All Blacks to far flung corners and everywhere in between, hiring them out at extortionate rates – cramming fixtures into whatever fallow weekends there are left after the July and November programmes and the Rugby Championship.

We will, say those who think they know the motivations of Silver Lake, see the All Blacks play in the Gulf States, China, South America and in the iconic soccer citadels of Europe such as Barcelona, Munich and Amsterdam.

It's not entirely outlandish for this view to be held as the All Blacks are in fact in the US this weekend to bank an estimated $3 million.

The All Blacks face the USA in a lucrative test in Washington DC this weekend. Photo / Photosport

The weekend after, they will be in Cardiff, doing much the same and these 'additional' tests have been part of NZR's strategy since 2005 when they agreed to play Wales outside of the designated World Rugby test window to enable the All Blacks, who were already scheduled to play Ireland, England and Wales, to attempt a Grand Slam.

Since then, they have played Bledisloe Cup tests in Asia, Ireland in Chicago and one-off fixtures against the USA, England and Japan for agreed fees, the highest of which is thought to be the match at Twickenham in 2012 which brought in $4m.

It seems like easy money – play and get paid and a hard-nosed private equity group such as Silver Lake could drive up the individual value of these additional tests, squeeze a couple more in per season and see a revenue source currently worth about $5m-$7m a season, become worth between $20m to $30m a season.

But no matter how convinced some are that this is precisely what Silver Lake will do if given the greenlight to invest, it's not a strategy that appeals to either the equity group, the players or NZR and an explosion of commercial tests is not going to happen.

Whatever plans Silver Lake may have to monetise the All Blacks, playing more random fixtures in ever more exotic locations, is not in their thinking.

An anti Silver Lake note left outside of NZ rugby house earlier this year. Photo / Photosport

It's tempting to see playing more tests for more money as a viable financial strategy, but ultimately, it's a doomed ploy that will drain the players, endanger the reputation of the team and over a longer period, devalue the value of the All Blacks' brand.

Even playing just one or two cash fixtures a year has been a tough balance to justify. In 2012, the All Blacks won 12 tests, drew one and lost one. The draw was an additional Bledisloe Cup match and the defeat was the $4m fixture in London.

In 2016 they lost the cash-spinner in Chicago to Ireland and they lost the additional Bledisloe fixture in 2017, while another cash game in 2018 against Japan, unquestionably stretched the players to the point where they were flat and tired when they lost to Ireland in Dublin a few weeks later.

And that's the biggest issue with these extra games – they place dangerously high physical and mental demands on the players and coaching staff and increase the prospect of the All Blacks being exposed as tired and under prepared at some stage later in the season.

There is a deeper philosophical argument to be had whether NZR should partner with a US private equity firm, but Silver Lake have earned the right to have their investment expertise acknowledged and to be trusted that they understand it would be disastrous in the long-term to ram more tests into an already crammed calendar.

The All Blacks are a cash cow but they have to be strategically milked, carefully and sensibly managed to avoid player burn out. If the defeats build up, the legend dissipates and the money stops rolling in.

What's more likely is that Silver Lake's plan will be to drive higher value from the existing set-up and try to make the July and November test programmes more compelling and marketable.

Higher value rather than higher volume will be their thinking and while that won't see the All Blacks stop playing the sorts of additional, commercial fixtures they are taking on these next two weekends if Silver Lake come on board, it certainly won't see them play significantly more.