Gregor Paul: The major risk in Rieko Ioane’s All Blacks decision

Rieko Ioane's future with New Zealand Rugby is up in the air. Photo / Photosport

OPINION:

Whatever Rieko Ioane is planning to do after the World Cup, he’d be advised to make his mind up sooner rather than later.

Clarity of mind tends to lead to clarity of performance and regardless of whether he decides to take up an offer to play in Japan or make a long-term commitment to New Zealand, he’ll benefit from the contentment and certainty that comes with knowing.

This is a bigger thing than many realise. There is a fragility to elite athletes that is often overlooked.

Their world runs on familiar routines and singular focus. They have routine because repetition is the bedrock of skill execution and the means by which players come to trust themselves and others.

Introduce an element such as having to make a major career decision at the start of a World Cup year when there are so many unknowns as it is, and it’s not uncommon for good players to see their form collapse to the point where they endanger their test selection.

There is a syndrome that affects players off contract in World Cup year — one where they are gripped by indecision about whether to stay in New Zealand or head offshore and end up so consumed that their form collapses.

It maybe shouldn’t be like that, but it can be. Players don’t always compartmentalise the way everyone else has to and the stress of working out what contract to sign can act like a virus.

Cory Jane nearly didn’t make the 2011 World Cup squad such was his scrambled mental state that year before the tournament.

Cory Jane in action for the Hurricanes during the 2011 Super Rugby season. Photo / Photosport

He had all but committed to play in Japan in 2012 until the tsunami intervened and then hummed and hawed about an offer from Ulster.

In the end he stayed in New Zealand and his Super Rugby form reflected his headspace.

He managed to recover his form on the eve of the tournament and this is why the All Blacks coaching group will be happier once Ioane has committed to his next contract wherever it may be.

They need him in form. They need him in the right mental state if the All Blacks are to achieve their potential in 2023.

Ioane famously faded at the last World Cup and while he made the squad, he barely featured.

It was a huge surprise that he didn’t have any impact because throughout 2017 and 2018 he was easily the best wing in world rugby.

But in 2019, something went wrong. His pace wasn’t quite there. His sharpness left him, and his raw physical power was nowhere to be seen.

Rieko Ioane looks on from the bench during the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Photo / Photosport

The All Blacks missed him more than they imagined they would at that tournament. They lacked a killer touch without him, as in his prime, he gave the backline a presence that unsettled defences.

In the four years since that World Cup, Ioane’s importance to the All Blacks has only grown.

Some still question whether his decision to switch to the midfield in 2020 was the right one. He hasn’t convinced everyone he’s a natural distributor and decision-maker in the role.

This is rendered moot, however, because it is obvious All Blacks head coach Ian Foster has committed to Ioane as his preferred centre and that’s because the strengths of his game outweigh the weaknesses.

Ioane may not necessarily be the right guy to exploit a two on one situation, but he showed on many occasions last year that what he lacks in his passing game, he makes up for with his ability to run.

The coaches would like to see him develop his distribution to the point where it’s more of a weapon, but no one should lose sight of the fact he terrorises defences with his acceleration and power and creates as many opportunities with his line breaks as others do with their passing.

Modern defences are so well structured and organised that the only real way to break them down is by having an athlete like Ioane who can beat a defender one-on-one.

Ioane brings a critical point of difference to the All Blacks attack and his ability to effectively partner Jordie Barrett in the midfield will have a massive bearing on how well the All Blacks do at this World Cup.

And so this is why Ioane needs to get his contractual future nailed down quickly. He needs a clear head so he can build his game through Super Rugby and reach July with the confidence in himself that he didn’t have at the corresponding stage of 2019.

Ideally he’ll not only make a decision soon, but it will be one that keeps him in New Zealand for at least another two years, if not longer, as his importance to the national team will be yet higher again following the inevitable senior player exodus after the World Cup.