David Havili, who was almost certain to have been pencilled in to start this week, tested positive for Covid-19. Photo / Photosport
David Havili, who was almost certain to have been pencilled in to start this week, tested positive for Covid-19. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
Fate will be unusually cruel should it, after striking David Havili and Jack Goodhue down with Covid, also intervene to prevent Jordie Barrett from being passed fit to play the All Blacks first test against Ireland.
Losing Havili, who was almost certain to have been pencilled in to startthis week, is unfortunate but manageable for the All Blacks.
In his absence, Quinn Tupaea, will likely be picked at second-five and give the All Blacks a physical presence and direct threat.
Tupaea is a route one player: pre-programmed to carry hard and smash his way over the gainline.
His game is spiced by his capacity to throw the occasional damaging offload but in comparison with Havili, Tupaea has a relatively limited skill-set.
The Chiefs midfielder can't operate as a second playmaker, which was predominantly going to be Havili's brief at Eden Park.
More specifically, Havili was going to be asked to play a key role in delivering a high quality, hard-to-read kicking strategy and give the All Blacks the attacking variation they lacked at times last year.
Building a diverse kicking game, executed by multiple players, is a key part of the All Blacks plan leading into the World Cup and Havili showed in the Super Rugby final that he's an astute decision-maker with a cultured right boot that can gain territory, turn teams and exert pressure.
His performances in the last few weeks of Super Rugby were a timely reminder of the full range of what he offers – which is considerably more than what he was putting on view in the last handful of tests of 2021.
Havili, after a brilliant Super Rugby campaign and strong start to the test season lost his way in test football at the end of last year when his field of vision became too narrow and his faith in his wider skill-set was shaken, leading him to instead try to impose himself through an exclusively physical approach.
By restricting himself to being a crash ball man, Havili, by the final test of last year, forced the selectors to choose between him and Tupaea.
Quinn Tupaea during an All Blacks training session. Photo / Photosport
And they went with Tupaea for the test against France because measured purely on their ability to get over the gainline and defend it, he's bigger, stronger, more physical and better suited to confrontation and collision.
But the All Blacks' preference has always been to field a multi-skilled player at No 12 – someone who can offer more than brute force because they believe to compete against the best teams, they need tactical kicking options either side of the ruck.
They also want their No 12 to be able to create space and buy time for others and play a strong role in guiding their No 10 through the game.
Losing Havili means the All Blacks have lost half the portfolio of skills they need at No 12 as Tupaea is not that multi-faceted player.
However, to some extent, the loss of Havili can be off-set by the presence of Jordie Barrett, who, from fullback, can pick up some of the play-making burden.
There were times last year, when Havili was playing with his head down and trying to smash his way to nowhere, that Barrett delivered the kicking variety and distribution subtleties that the coaches were hoping to see from their second-five.
Barrett can be that second play-maker from fullback and most importantly, give the All Blacks a second kicking option to keep Ireland guessing about where the threat lies.
The danger if he is ruled out, is that it will force the All Blacks into a tactical re-think about what balance to strike between running and kicking.
No Havili and no Barrett will leave the All Blacks lacking diversity in their kicking game – something they will be a little nervous about if it transpires.
Most likely, Will Jordan would shift to fullback if Barrett isn't right, and while he's the most incredible runner and innate finisher, he's not a renowned second-playmaker or a world class tactical kicker.
Just as importantly, the All Blacks will miss Barrett's defensive ability if he's unavailable as Ireland are the masters at using the contestable kick to their advantage.
Barrett is one of the best defensive fielders of the high ball, while Jordan still looks occasionally vulnerable and the Irish will be deadly at exploiting any half chance that comes from a spilled catch.
And this is the worry for the All Blacks – after recognising a need to have a playmaking 12 and a kicking presence at fullback, they could be left without either through nothing more than bad luck.
