Brian Moore: Third test set to come down to a moment of genius

All Blacks lock Brodie Retallick evades the tackle of Lions flanker Sean O'Brien. Photo / Brett Phibbs.

By Brian Moore

The most that British and Irish Lions fans hoped before this Test series was that come the third rubber they were still in the hunt. Now that this has been achieved many of them are quietly confident that the series can be won. Such confidence is often misplaced and based on little more than blind faith but this time there are good reasons for it.

The physical challenge of playing against the All Blacks is not only about raw power, though that in itself is a huge issue, it is about the speed at which the game is played.

Many northern hemisphere players do not play at that speed or anywhere near it for large part of the year. Though it has taken a little time, the Lions are now fully conversant with speed required in thought and deed. The first 15 minutes of the second half in Wellington saw them withstand a huge onslaught and they came through it with enough left to score two conclusive tries.

The set piece has been shown to be largely a matter of concentration. Neither side has managed to find a decisive edge and provided standards do not drop and focus is remained we're unlikely to see that change in the 3rd Test. The Lions can therefore be assured of sufficient ball with which to play.

It is in the backs that the greatest cause for optimism lies and this is against all conventional wisdom coming into the series. European back play has long been derided in the southern hemisphere and hitherto with good reason. What might have gone unseen is the improvements in both the Premiership and Pro-12 tournaments and particularly the European Cups. The style of game being played is not yet of the cavalier Super Rugby and nor do most fans want it to be. However, it has improved markedly over the past three years with the non-French sides deciding that the best way to deal with mega-French clubs and mega-sized players is to develop skills and play at greater pace. There is still more kicking, often dictated by the conditions but skill sets have improved and emerging players are being asked to work on this aspect more than before.

In the first two Tests, the Lions have created more chances than New Zealand and though the sending off of Sonny Bill Williams has some bearing on that, it is insufficient to nullify the Lions claim to have been the more creative team so far. Whether Ben T'eo and Jonathan Davies or Jonathan Sexton and Owen Farrell have been the attacking axis the chances have been fashioned and there is no reason to suppose this will not continue. It is a question of whether the Lions can find the right conversion rate, not whether they will get any chances in the first place.

The Lions back three were put together out of chance and late bids made from a group that struggled early in the tour. The combination of Elliot Daly, Liam Williams and Anthony Watson have been a revelation and probably shaded the duel with their counterparts, something else that nobody predicted before the tour.

You have to consider the unavailability through injury and suspension of the All Blacks three top centres but there are has been instability and uncertainty over the centres and back three throughout the series and the latest combinations do not evince strength from knowledge, they portray hope value. The selection of Julian Savea, in particular, appears to be against the All Black mantra of form before reputation, given his relatively modest performances this season. Who knows, it could all come together and class might out but there is a whiff of chance that is not normal with New Zealand.

Despite all this, the fact that the game is at Eden Park and the All Blacks have now had an extended period together dictates that they are slight favourites but there is not much to choose between the teams if both pay to their potential. Like all good Test series this is likely to come down to one moment of genius or one egregious error; let's hope it doesn't come from an official.

Brian Moore is a former England and Lions hooker who played in the 1993 series decider.