The idea that it wasn't wise to change a winning team stopped being true in test rugby at least a decade ago.
It was a solid bit of advice back in the day when tests were occasional. But once they started to come thick and fast and the physicalityand intensity jumped, it became unwise for coaches to stick with the same players for every game.
These days, the entire art of selection is working out how to tinker with a winning team: how to refresh it, rejuvenate it and give it a burst of energy and point of difference.
This is no simple business. There is no manual, or set way of doing things. It's a genuine gut-feel art – a test of a coach's ability to understand the overall landscape of test football, to see minor tell-tale signs in the last performance of who might be in need of a break and hardest of all is working out who is ready to come in and offer what the team needs.
Former All Blacks coach Steve Hansen was in a different class when it came to the intuitive art of tinkering. He had what many felt was a sixth sense – something that came from his high emotional intelligence and in-depth understanding of his athletes.
Somehow he just knew who to pull out, who to put in and how to play around with his selections to keep the victories coming.
This is a skill-set his predecessor, Ian Foster, has not yet had to demonstrate he possesses. Until now.
This is the week for him to show whether he too has that same innate ability to read his squad and subtly change things up to enable the All Blacks to achieve a range of goals – not the least of which is keeping their foot on the throat of a Wallabies side who they know they can psychologically damage if they inflict another heavy defeat on them in Brisbane.
The need to perform and win remains paramount to this week's selection but there are other factors that Foster will have to weigh up.
The emotional investment in the last four weeks has been high. The team were under pressure after a poor first outing in Wellington and have responded with two clinical, intense efforts which will have likely taken a mental toll on some of the younger players.
There were maybe signs in Sydney that Hoskins Sotutu, who has been hugely impressive in all three games so far, might benefit from a week off to recharge and process all he has been through since being picked.
Shannon Frizell has been tracking well, too but Foster will be wary that it is all too easy to underestimate the physical and mental demands that come with being a bruising, dominant No 6 and foresee that a rest this week may have longer term benefits.
Having come off the bench for two tests, Scott Barrett is ready to start and injecting him might just give the All Blacks the fresh impetus they need in the tight five to maintain the high standards achieved in the last two tests.
And that's kind of what this selection art is all about – trying to pre-empt where problems could arise by asking the same players to keep doing the same things.
Ian Foster and the All Blacks coaching staff with the Bledisloe Cup. Photo / Photosport
There is no point in being wise after the event and realising in defeat that a couple of key players came into a test tired and flat. Best to be ahead of that and this week especially, there is a high risk of some individuals being flat given that the series is now safely in the bag.
Inevitably, it will be harder for the All Blacks to find the same mental energy this week as they had last.
Players are human and the pressure that comes with wanting to win is not the same stimulus as the pressure that comes with needing to win.
It would be naive to think otherwise as it would be unwise, dangerous even, for Foster to rip things up and make wholesale changes.
The art of selection extends to being able to recognise that injecting a few new players with specific points to prove, will lift the mental energy of the whole team, without throwing away some of the core components that have been built in the last three weeks.
After a sticky first test, Foster has gone about silencing a number of his more vocal critics with assured and astute performances that allude to his depth of strategic understanding and ability to respond to circumstances.
His instincts seem well attuned – something that we will be able to better judge when he picks his team later this week.
