Today’s announcement of the All Black squad will herald one of the most challenging and daunting international seasons in the last six years, and maybe longer. Gregor Paul looks at the options available ... such as they are.
The hard part for Graham Henry this morning will be retaining a level of conviction he has announced a 26-man squad capable of great things.
Injury has made this selection one of the more challenging; it has also
left the squad one of the most challenged.
The midfield, due to injuries
to Ma'a Nonu, Mike Delany and Isaia Toeava and virtually no game time for Luke McAlister, is going to be one of the more extreme patch-up jobs.
There is a sense of getting by at lock.
It's almost impossible to be excited by the options at halfback - whoever they might be - and should something happen to Dan Carter, well, it'd be best to get the kids into bed early on test nights, or let them stay up to watch something less scary, like The Exorcist or The Omen.
In the six years Henry has been in charge, he admits this squad has taxed the panel more than any other. In the past the challenge has been settling on who to leave out; in 2010 it's all about scrambling for bodies; trying to determine which square pegs can be rammed into round holes. The All Blacks have gone like wartime Britain and are having to make do and mend - which has never been their way before. It's reached that point. The drain offshore is biting.
There are now, really, only two types of players here - established test stars and younger men, hopeful their time is coming.
When injury and or loss of form strikes the former, too many of the latter aren't ready. That's the issue when it comes to second five. The two established men can't take their place - Nonu because of his knee, McAlister because he hasn't played anywhere near enough football.
In better times there would have been a third, or even a fourth seasoned, reliable campaigner, someone like Sam Tuitupou, with a few tests under his belt always ready to fill in and prove he should be higher up the pecking order. Benson Stanley and Ryan Crotty would be the respective third and fourth choices. Neither strikes as All Black-ready. Neither has even really proven themselves consistently at Super 14.
The global market can't shoulder the blame alone. New Zealand has lost its edge as a rugby innovator since crashing out of the 2007 World Cup. Defeat in Cardiff should have been the catalyst to change. The sixmonth independent review into the failure had narrow parameters, focusing only on retrospective World Cupspecific strategies.
It ignored the generic malaise which had gripped the game here.
A smarter administration, one genuinely interested in driving a recovery
rather than self-preservation, would have looked beyond Freddie Michalak's forward pass and a referee hopelessly out of his depth. New Zealand is paying the price for its obsession with the power athlete.
Even schoolboy rugby, as Henry himself said last year, is fixated with the biggest, fastest and strongest. No one is joining the dots to conclude that problems at this level manifest down the track with greater impact.
Carter is the only first five who can manage a game; drive a plan and adapt as he has to.
Why there aren't any others should be obvious. The best schoolboy 10s aren't asked to play that way. They catch and pass relentlessly, picking out the next behemoth to arrive on their shoulder.
Encouraging all this is the style employed at Super 14 across the franchises.
Even the Crusaders had this incessant desire to shift the ball this year. Playing with width is fine, but too often it looks as if New Zealand teams rush the ball to the wing believing once it gets there, that in itself will have created space and opportunity.
The balance isn't there. If Super rugby coaches had been paying attention, they would have seen success comes to those with multiple game plans. Instead of almost sneering with disdain at the South African kick-and-chase game or their love of the rolling maul, New Zealand teams should have been learning these forgotten arts.
Now they are playing catch-up, having fallen a long way behind. If Morne Steyn is unsure what to do, he'll bang over a drop goal or stick the ball so high his chasers are going to get something for their endeavour. When New Zealand's first fives are unsure, they fling long passes - or run into trouble. One country understands the need to apply pressure through any means; the other is hampered by its belief style is somehow more important than content.
Global markets, tactical stagnation and possibly even a little complacency that rugby genius is in the genes, are the reasons why this morning's All Black squad announcement will be met more with trepidation than excitement.
The optimists will find enough to retain their natural state. Owen Franks has matured into a frightening beast and he, Keven Mealamu and Tony Woodcock should form a quality unit.
Neemia Tialata should get the nod as he covers both sides and even in his darkest moments when his conditioning has all but gone, he's managed to scrummage well enough.
John Afoa will likely edge out Wyatt Crockett for the fourth berth, helped by his potential to fi ll in at hooker. Sam Whitelock has only got better the more he has played and deserves to partner Brad Thorn against Ireland, while the loose forwards pick themselves - Jerome Kaino, Adam Thomson, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read and probably Victor Vito. What troubles the realists is the thought of this lot against South Africa. Is there enough rutality in the mix? Is the lineout going to hold together? Can they find scrimmaging dominance?
Most worrying is the thought of Thorn, McCaw or Mealamu being injured. Take one of them out and the impact will be noticeable. Lose two of them and this All Black pack will hold little fear, even for the Wallabies. Tom Donnelly's recovery is vital and he will most likely be named today in an extended squad as it is believed Michael Paterson has been invited to attend the training camp this week in Auckland. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Tanerau Latimer was last week used in a commercial campaign of one of the key sponsors.
Halfback is the most open position in the country largely because there is no standout candidate. The game has been set up for running, directing halfbacks - men who can change the tempo in an instant; men who can damage with ball in hand, kick cleverly and also attend to the basics.
Fourie du Preez and Will Genia are so far ahead of the rest of the world it's not funny. The All Blacks will stick with Jimmy Cowan whose defence and tenacity have been priceless in the past. But is he now potentially an anchor - an unfortunate victim of a changing game?
Loyalty to Cowan could be a mistake - is the time right to be bold, backing both Alby Mathewson and Kahn Fotuali'i instead of just one? The same has to be asked at first five. Stephen Donald has been tried. He came, he saw and he most definitely didn't conquer. He'll most likely be a default pick this morning, yet such conservatism, such lack of imagination could be costly.
Why not go the brave route and back Aaron Cruden now? The components he lacks - length in his kicking and more authority to impose himself - are fixable.
This is the panel that took a massive risk with Carter in 2004. It paid
the highest reward. If not Cruden, then Colin Slade. Conversely, while it feels the right time to be brave, to take risks with the inside backs, such enterprise should be resisted when it comes to the midfield and back three.
It's still possible, despite his rib injury that will keep him out for three weeks, that Richard Kahui, short of form and confidence and a recognised centre, will be named as one of the most likely options to play second five.
He's a class act - a brute on defence; sharp in his thinking and professional to the core. He'll see a switch to second five not as threat but as the opportunity to rekindle a season that has stuttered.
As Henry said: "We've just got to pick a guy we think can handle the demands. Some [of the contenders] haven't had experience of international rugby, and some have. What we've got to do is get somebody we know will do the business for us, rather than think maybe he could be a superstar, but he could embarrass himself too."
On that basis, Benson Stanley is doubtful as is Ryan Crotty, although the former may be called in to cover for Kahui initially. As alternatives to Kahui, there is Conrad Smith who could offer much at 12 and if paired with Kahui, they could effectively operate as inside and outside centres. The core requirement of the back three is going to be how they fare under the high ball.
That has to remain prevalent in the thinking - there's no point having fi nishers who can score one try but concede two because of their inability to tidy up in the air. Cory Jane, Zac Guildford, Mils Muliaina will be there. Joe Rokocoko could be used against everyone except South Africa and Rudi Wulf is the best defensive wing in the country.
Possible Squad:
Tony Woodcock, Neemia Tialata, John Afoa, Owen Franks, Keven Mealamu, Corey Flynn, Tom Donnelly, Sam Whitelock*, Michael Paterson*, Anthony Boric, Brad Thorn, Jerome Kaino, Adam Thomson, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Victor Vito, Jimmy Cowan, Kahn Fotuali'i, Dan Carter, Stephen Donald, Richard Kahui, Benson Stanley#, Conrad Smith, Zac Guildford,
Cory Jane, Joe Rokocoko, Rudi Wulf, Colin Slade, Mils Muliaina.
* Selected as cover for Donnelly.
# Selected as cover for Kahui
