Worry-O-Meter: You’re the King of France. You can hear a crowd gathering in the streets. Your wife calls for more dessert. 9/10
Likely result: France by a whisker.
Match 2: ABs v Namibia (No 21)
Reasons to worry: This side is largely comprised of South Africans who, lacking the delicate touch of blokes like Pieter-Steph du Toit, jumped the border. Their crash-and-bash style will give a midweek ABs squad a nudge. Rich opportunity for someone to attain hometown hero status by becoming The Guy That Knocked Out Ardie Savea In A Ruck.
Toulouse isn’t a happy hunting ground for the All Blacks. We’re 2-2 against the French there in the past 50 years, and the last time we played a minnow team known for their strong forward pack (Romania, in 2007) we scored a miserable 85 points – that’s barely a point a minute.
Worry-O-Meter: There’s one minute until your shift finishes. The phone rings. 2/10
Likely result: Battered All Blacks pour on the points.
Match 3: ABs v Italy (No 14)
Reason to worry: The list of international teams that have never beaten the ABs has become notably shorter in recent years years. Italy are still there, but in the past 10 years they’ve slowly eaten away at the All Blacks aura, with winning margins decreasing from 68-10 in 2016 to a nail-biting 47-9 in 2021. They’re nipping at our heals just like the wolves that raised Romulus and Remus!
A super technical issue? The pitch in Toulouse is a fancy mix of grass, cork, extra silicious fine sand (their words, not mine) and recycled fibres. Down here, we mostly play footy on grass. Ever seen what happens to a Melbourne Cup horse that moves from turf to sand? Not pretty. Now imagine you have 15 horses moving from grass to hybrid turf. Throw in a niggly Achilles – like the one Sam Whitelock is carrying – and there’s grounds for sleepless nights.
Worry-O-Meter: “It’s probably normal for taxis in this part of Rome to not have any labelling on them that identify them as taxis.” 4/10
Likely result: Angry All Blacks win at a canter.
Match 4: ABs v Uruguay (No 17)
Reasons to worry: At this point in the tournament we’ll be playing with one eye on the quarter-finals. Expect regular starters to be rested or benched and plenty of substitutions at the 50-minute mark. The result: Further fracturing of combinations that have only had a handful internationals to gel.
Worry-O-Meter: As you enter the bathroom in a restaurant, a staff-member is exiting. Weirdly, you didn’t hear the sound of taps running as hands are washed. 2/10
Likely result: We’ll win. But we won’t be better for it.
Quarter-final: ABs v Ireland (No 1) or South Africa (No 4)
Reasons to worry: Whether we finish top of Pool A or second, it’s a hard road to make the semifinals. Pool B is a Pool of Annihilation, with the Irish and the Boks beating up on each other, Scotland, Tonga and Romania.
The defending World Cup champion Boks are only .1 of a point behind the ABs in World Rugby’s rankings. If we face them in the quarter-finals, the complete collapse of Super Rugby will come home to roost – our players no longer have regular exposure to South African players and tactics. Familiarity breeds contempt, but absence makes the set piece crumble under pressure.
The Irish? We don’t talk about the Irish.
Worry-O-Meter: “Big game tomorrow, so we definitely made a wise decision staying in the hotel room and ordering room service. Hey, did that fish taste funny to you?” 11/10
Likely result: Fozzie’s mob brawl their way through.
Semifinal: ABs v Australia (No 7) or Argentina (No 8)
Reasons to worry: Eddie Jones has a 100 per cent winning record against the All Blacks in World Cup matches (semifinals in 2003 and 2019) and Argentina has added beating the All Blacks to their national export assets alongside amazing grass-fed steak and rich, full-bodied red wines. After going 29 matches without a victory against the All Blacks, Los Pumas are two wins from four in the Ian Foster era.
The other worry? If we make this semifinal, we’re likely to have as many as nine of the players who started the 2019 RWC semifinal in the match-day 23, with a decent number of those still starting. Have they improved? Or are we just not developing talent in key positions?
Worry-O-Meter: She comes back from the OE with the friend that she has been backpacking with. He’s a foot taller than you. 10/10
Likely result: A ticket to the playoff for third and fourth.
Playoff for third and fourth: ABs vs England (No 6)
Reason to worry: England will likely be swung low against the French in the semifinals, and will have a point to prove against the All Blacks.
Worry-O-Meter: Is there some cricket on? 0/10
Likely result: The All Blacks should win, sending off some of the greatest players the side has ever seen. But victory here hardly matters.
