League: Gazing into the NRL crystal ball

New Warriors halfback Brett Seymour stood out in the three trial matches. Photo / Greg Bowker

The NRL kicks off next week and Michael Brown and Andrew Alderson decided picking the top eight would be too, ahem, easy. Instead they make eight predictions.

1. The Warriors will be better than 2009

Well, they could hardly be worse. The Warriors finished an unacceptable 14th last season after starting as third-favourites. Injuries didn't help (Tate, Vatuvei, Price, Mannering, Ropati et al), but they looked tired, were mediocre on attack (their 357 points for was the worst in the competition) and didn't seem to believe they could meet the expectations placed on them.

Too often last year players heaved the ball to Stacey Jones and stood back in the expectation he would provide the magic. He didn't and it was unrealistic to expect he could. It's largely the same squad as last year and big things were expected of them so it's not unreasonable to suggest they could prove doubters wrong in 2010. They were undefeated in their three pre-season trials and, while little can be read into that, this will build much-needed confidence. They are also largely injury-free and will hope that continues.

The club have promised a fresh start. They have tinkered with personnel behind the scenes, controversially appointed a new captain and coach Ivan Cleary has said they will throw the ball around more. They have also been written off by Aussie bookmakers. That's probably a good thing. Kiwi teams do better as underdogs.

2. More misery for Souths

It's a tough existence being a Bunnies fan. Souths might be the most successful club in Australian rugby league history with 20 premierships - St George are next with 15 - but it is 40 years since their last title.

There is growing anticipation 2010 could be the Rabbitohs' year and Souths boss Shane Richardson hasn't been shy in talking up his side's chances. What is driving that optimism is the fact they have one of the most intimidating forward packs around, especially after the high-profile signings of Sam Burgess, rated by many as the world's best forward, former Brisbane battering ram Dave Taylor and Ben Ross. Add in Roy Asotasi, Michael Crocker and Eddy Pettybourne and there's more mongrel than anything at the SPCA.

But there are lingering doubts about Souths. Five-eighth John Sutton is a gifted player but fans see these skills too infrequently and the Bunnies of recent times have been similarly too erratic. They will trouble teams this season but you get the sense the weight of history, tradition and expectation is too heavy even for a hulking forward pack.

3. Another season of scandals

Surely no sporting competition, even outside the southern hemisphere, has been afflicted by more scandal than the NRL in recent years. Group sex, heavy drinking, pub brawling and illicit drug use continue to make regular headlines as preferred choices of post-match behaviour. The NRL have promised to clamp down on miscreants in 2010.

Clubs, too, have tried to educate their players. Just last week, the West Tigers went on an etiquette course which included advice on things like taking just one sausage roll at a time at social functions, not eating with their mouths full, handshaking and name recognition techniques. A segment was also devoted to the treatment of women, advising players to pay for dinner and drinks and holding the door open on evenings out. It's unrealistic, though, to expect the season to go off without incident. Old habits die hard, especially with young men who often think they are above the law.

It doesn't seem to have much influence on fans. Numbers who watch the game continue to grow, and it's expected they will increase again in 2010. Last year average crowd figures reached 16,051 - 2.8 per cent up on 2008 and club memberships also increased by 27 per cent. Go figure.

4. The Eels will do a Warriors

Momentum is an incredible thing in rugby league. It is also a dangerous thing to judge a team's chances on.

Quite incredibly, the Eels are rated as favourites for the 2010 title. That's ahead of Melbourne, Manly, St George and the Bulldogs. Yes, they made it to last year's grand final but they did it on the back of a stupendous run when they were on the brink of playoffs extinction. And it's despite the fact the Eels lost all three trial matches - and, yes, they count for little.

The Eels have a very good side headed by last year's Dally M Medal winner Jarryd Hayne and they also have Timana Tahu back after a two-year experiment with rugby union. But the Warriors will tell you the dangers of expectations. They were the runaway trains of 2008 and entered 2009 as third-favourites and look what happened to them.

5. Newcastle have already scuppered their season

The Knights are in turmoil six days out from their start, following drugs charges against second-rower Chris Houston. He faces three charges of supplying ecstasy and cocaine and has been stood down. In December, his team-mate and former house-mate Danny Wicks was charged with similar offences. If convicted, they face bans of four years from professional sport on top.

Sponsors are now reviewing their relationship with the club, the Knights have been asked to provide information outlining the steps taken to ensure players are complying with the code of conduct and an emergency meeting was also called in a week when Houston's image was removed from the club's website.

The upshot is it will take something extraordinary for the Knights to drag themselves out of this self-made mire to emulate last year's seventh under the split coaching reign of Brian Smith and incumbent Rick Stone. They could lose two regular first-graders and there's little out there to replace them. Not to mention how destabilising it will be for doubts to swirl around the remaining players.

All is not lost. Andrew Johns has returned to the club as skills coach and membership has gone up 25 per cent this year. Manly also showed, to a degree at least, they could overcome unwanted distractions (Brett Stewart, Anthony Watmough) when they finished fifth last season.

6. Willie Mason will remain the game's most over-rated player

The Human Headline has won the controversial Rugby League Week award for the past two years and he's well on the way to winning it for a third straight time. Last week the 29-year-old topped the list in an online Daily Telegraph poll with 20 per cent of the vote and he's yet to trundle the ball up in competition in 2010.

Mason has joined the Cowboys after being shunted out by the Roosters at the end of 2009. He polarises opinion, largely because of his off-field misdemeanours, which have included heavy drinking, urinating in public, faking another player's autograph or testing positive to an illicit social drug. His detractors see him as a sledger unable to back up the talk while supporters back his on-field firepower, his enthusiasm... and his mouth.

The over-rated award, though, is more of a popularity contest. Mason has hardly been rated by selectors given he hasn't played for NSW or Australia since 2008.

Interestingly, one opponent considered him over-rated last week in Darwin. Mason and Cowboys captain Johnathan Thurston jumped into a tank with local celebrity Burt - a 5m-long 1000kg crocodile. The pair taunted the reptile star of Crocodile Dundee through the wall of his perspex tank. Burt lunged back at speed and apparently both players were understood to be high in their praise for the transparent barrier's thickness.

7. Brett Seymour will succeed at the Warriors

Few players have arrived at Mt Smart Stadium in recent years with such baggage as Brett Seymour. The Warriors admit they have taken a risk signing the 25-year-old after years trying to build the right 'culture' at the club and they have placed him on a very tight leash.

But there's a sense that Seymour will succeed. He's a smart footballer, a good footballer, and in three trial matches he has shown his ability to steer the good ship Warriors around the park. He also knows this is his last chance in the NRL after two well-documented sackings for alcohol abuse at the Broncos and Sharks. He is determined to take it and he has already impressed Warriors coach Ivan Cleary enough to be named captain for the second trial against the Cowboys.

Seymour isn't a half who's going to step his way through five defenders like Benji Marshall or try an audacious kick like Johnathan Thurston but he could be just what the Warriors need.

8. Another new winner

Since the creation of the NRL in 1998, there has been a different winner every year. Melbourne have gone closest to winning back-to-back titles, having played in the last four grand finals and picking up two titles (2007, 2009). They will be contenders again in 2010 but maybe the bookies have picked up on this trend because the Storm don't start as favourites.

The NRL is one of the most difficult competitions to predict. The salary cap is still not perfect but it's being enforced better than in the past which helps create an even competition.

There are some things that can virtually be taken as given - the Broncos always make the playoffs (they haven't missed out for 16 years); Des Hasler and Craig Bellamy will have to make regular payments in the swear jar; a player wearing 1, 6, 7, or 9 will win the Dally M (only two players outside these positions have won it in the past 24 years); and Willie Mason will say something stupid.