NRL: Entering the finals countdown

The revival of the Dragons was one of the year's main themes. Here Jeremy Smith is congratulated by teammates. Photo / Getty Images

It's a shame 2009 won't go down as one of the NRL's better years. The steady flow of scandalous and disreputable behaviour from the game's most high profile personalities has seen to that.

Foibles and failures of character from the likes of Brett Stewart, Anthony Watmough, Matthew Johns and Greg Inglis have been the dominant stories. At times, the atmosphere has been so grim the matches have seemed almost trivial.

What league would give for having a schoolboy punch-up as its most worrisome scandal. And yet, the game not only survives but thrives.

Leaving aside the dismal performance of the Warriors, this year's competition has been one of the most enthralling and evenly contested in years. With three rounds remaining, the race for the minor premiership is still far from decided, while no fewer than eight teams are chasing the final four playoff spots.

The storming late season runs of the Tigers, Eels and, to a lesser degree, Rabbitohs, have provided the highly enjoyable sub plots to the main theme - the revival of the Dragons under Wayne Bennett and a perhaps even more impressive Bulldogs reincarnation post Sonny Bill and Steve Folkes.

The battle between those two might well run all the way to grand final day but, given the charge made by the Eels and Tigers, the steady improvement of the Titans and the lingering presence of the Sea Eagles and Storm, it's more likely an interloper will break up the party.

First things first - booking a spot in the eight. The top four are all secure but below that it is a dog fight. Plugging various permutations into the NRL website's ladder predictor suggests the cutoff will be at either 28 or 29 points, with eight place likely to decided by points differential. That could be bad news for the Broncos, as they look to keep their 16-year playoff streak alive.

The competition's form teams, the Eels and Tigers, have looked unstoppable over the last month but they now run into each other tonight, ensuring at least one will hit what might turn out to be either a mere speed bump or a brick wall. Both then have tough finishes, with the Tigers facing the third-placed Titans and second-placed Bulldogs and the Eels meeting the Panthers (10th) and Dragons (1st). And yet both can - and probably will - sneak into the eight.

Newcastle's dismissal of coach Brian Smith and subsequent upset victory over the Storm has further complicated the picture. With the Knights odds-on to slip out of the eight just a week ago, a late rally would be bad for the chasing pack.

Of that pack, the Eels look good to steam on into the eight, while the Cowboys could be the wildcard. The North Queenslanders may have lost four of their last five but those defeats have been to in-form teams. And matches against the Knights and Broncos (crucially at home) give them the chance to deny direct rivals points.

Of those who could drop out, the Knights, Broncos and even the Sea Eagles look vulnerable. The permutations are numerous. The contests should be thrillers. Time to put the foolishness aside and concentrate on the footy.

THE ROAD TO THE PLAYOFFS

1. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA

(36 pts, +227 differential) - Broncos (h), Rabbitohs (a), Eels (h)

Having failed to slam the door on the race for the minor premiership against the Raiders last week, the Dragons now face a run in with the Bulldogs nipping at their heels the whole way. With all three of their opponents still in the playoff hunt, the Dragons can expect to cop more bashings like the one inflicted in Canberra. If they come through unscathed, they'll be odds on for the title.

Prediction: 1st, 42 points.

2. BULLDOGS

(34 pts, +125) - Roosters (h), Warriors (h), Wests Tigers (a)

The team that just won't go away should keep the pressure on the Dragons with comfortable home wins over the lowly Roosters and Warriors. That should be enough to wrap up at least second spot, while a last round visit to the high-flying Tigers will be the perfect dress rehearsal for the playoffs.

Prediction: 2nd, 40 points.

3. GOLD COAST

(32 pts, +59) - Sharks (h), Wests Tigers (h), Sea Eagles (a)

Already secure in the top four, a gimme at home against a Sharks side that have already tanked their season should keep the Titans' train rolling. But the final two rounds, when not much will be riding on the results - for the Titans at least - will provide a better guide to their title credentials. If they can get past the desperate Tigers and Sea Eagles, they are the real deal.

Prediction: 3rd, 34 points.

4. MELBOURNE

(29 pts, +109) - Sea Eagles (h), Roosters (h), Warriors (a)

Can they survive the fallout from the Greg Inglis affair? Will their superstar player return? About the only thing going for the Storm at the moment is that, after Sunday's game against Manly, they face the Roosters and Warriors. It's hard to see them making a splash in the playoffs.

Prediction: 4th, 43 points.

5. WESTS TIGERS

(26 pts, +73) - Eels (h), Titans (a), Bulldogs (h)

The Tigers may have been streaking for over a month but now things get tough. The Eels are running just as hot, while the Titans and Bulldogs have been solid all season. With their strong points differential, one win from three might just be enough to squeak into the eight. Two will definitely get the job done, while three would just about make them favourites for the title.

Prediction: 8th, 28 points.

6. MANLY

(26 pts, +50) - Storm (a), Sharks (h), Titans (h)

The defending champs have a tough assignment in Melbourne followed by a gimme against the Sharks. Their fate could well be determined by how they fare at home against the impressive Titans in the final round. Missing the eight altogether is a very real possibility.

Prediction: 5th, 32 points.

7. NEWCASTLE

(26 pts, -20) - Cowboys (h), Raiders (a), Panthers (h)

The sacking of Brian Smith and a shock win over the Storm has breathed new life into a season that had appeared to be over after three straight defeats. Tomorrow's match against the Cowboys is huge. Win and they have one foot in the eight. That said, it could all come down to the last round against the Panthers.

Prediction: 9th, 28 points.

8. BRISBANE

(26 pts, -83) - Dragons (a), Cowboys (a), Raiders (h)

Having the worst points differential of the playoff contenders could well prove the Broncos' undoing. If a log jam occurs at the 28-point mark - a very real possibility - they will be goneburgers. To guard against that, they need to win two out of three against the Dragons, Cowboys and Raiders. Not impossible, but it's easier see them missing out that making the cut.

Prediction: 10th, 28 points.

9. PARRAMATTA

(25 pts, -10) - Wests Tigers (a), Panthers (h), Dragons (a)

They may have made a glorious late charge but the Eels still begin the round outside the eight and have an extremely tough run in. Two wins out of three will probably get them across the line but, with a trip to face the Dragons to come in the final round, they won't want to leave it late.

Prediction: 7th, 29 points.

10. PENRITH

(25 pts, -27) - Rabbitohs (h), Eels (a), Knights (a)

How big does that point salvaged against the Warriors look now? Still in the hunt, the Panthers need at least two more wins. They should get one at home tomorrow against the injury-ravaged Rabbitohs. Their fate will then be determined against fellow contenders the Eels and Knights. A long shot at best.

Prediction: 11th, 27 points.

11. NTH QUEENSLAND

(24 pts, +80) - Knights (a), Broncos (h), Roosters (a)

Likely need to finish three from three but could also sneak in with two wins thanks to a healthy points differential. Much will depend on tomorrow's game against the Knights. Win and they leapfrog a bunch of teams. Lose and the gap starts to look too wide.

Prediction: 6th, 30 points.

12. SOUTH SYDNEY

(23 pts, +10) - Panthers (a), Dragons (h), Sharks (a)

We're talking miracle territory here. Shorn of a hatful of stars, the Rabbits will need to finish three from three, with 29 points probably getting them into the eight. If they get past the Panthers, they'll then be up against the Dragons. If they somehow survive that test, you'd back them against the Sharks in round 26. But that won't happen.

Prediction: 12th, 25 points.