KEY POINTS:
The Kiwis side that plays Australia in Sydney on May 9 may be stacked with Roosters' backs, is likely to contain the least number of Warriors ever and will again - and as usual - be weakened by the unavailability of Super League players.
The English league made
its Challenge Cup round-five draw this week and, unfortunately for Kiwis selectors, key games pit Super League teams against each other.
Only Wigan, who will host Whitehaven, are likely to release players named for New Zealand and that means that Thomas Leuluai is pretty much a certainty at halfback when the 17 is named on May 4.
The other possibles would be Benji Marshall (but he'll be five-eighth if fit), Ben Roberts from the Bulldogs, last year's tourist at halfback Jeremy Smith (who is struggling for form) his replacement at Souths the Junior Kiwi Eddie Paea (just 20 and with just seven NRL games behind him) Lance Hohaia (whose ease at switching from one to six, seven or nine or the midfield is likely to mean he's bench utility and injury cover).
Leeds are away to Harlequins, so their board will deny a release for Kiwis fullback Brent Webb, who would have been a certainty. That would make an interesting change for their coach Brian McClennan who this time last year was preparing the Kiwis and calling for English clubs to make players available.
So Roosters 2007-2008 fullback fill-in and 2007 Kiwis fullback Sam Perrett is the likely No 1. Their big wing Shaun Kenny-Dowall is among the mistakes leaders in the NRL but also among the line-and-tackle breaks leaders and looks a certainty. For the same reasons Warrior Manu Vatuvei will make it despite being a target when defending.
That perhaps makes the choice of centres who are defensively sound more critical than usual. Normally there is abundant choice here. This season injury has hobbled three top contenders: Jerome Ropati, David Vaeliki and Steve Matai. Clinton Toopi over in England is out as well. Rooster Iosaia Soliola has also struggled with injury but played strongly in his comeback and looks good for one spot. Other options are Roosters teammate Setaimata Sa, Tim Winitana from the Bulldogs or Warrior Simon Mannering because the options in the second row where he plays for the Warriors are wide.
Bulldog Sonny Bill Williams is one certainty there, as is Penrith's Frank Pritchard and Souths David Kidwell, who shapes as a good option as lock. Other choices for the selectors include David Fa'alogo and Jeremy Smith from the Storm.
The props should be Nathan Cayless from Parramatta and Roy Asotasi from Souths, with Warrior Nathan Fien the best Kiwis-eligible hooker running around right now. Warrior Sam Rapira and the Storm's Jeff Lima are good choices for bench props.
Asotasi should keep the captaincy despite the issues of last year's tour and the subsequent demise of Gary Kemble, because he has proved longevity in selection since his international debut in 2004, has been a first-choice player in his position and a consistently good performer all that time. And he can keep bringing those traits to the team for some time yet as he's just 26.
A side that shaped like that would have just one player from England, five Warriors and no one on debut. Hohaia and Perrett can kick goals. Size, experience and a stunning back row would be pluses. As usual, the big disadvantage is in field-kicking.
Speed and star playmakers in the halves will be Australia's advantage.
Skipper Darren Lockyer has played just 39 minutes in four games this season as he struggles to return after knee surgery but has been told he's five-eighth if he proves his fitness this weekend against Souths but if he were to miss out they would put Cowboys star Johnathan Thurston in six and Titans playmaker Scott Prince in seven.
They have some injury woes, not least at prop where Warrior Steve Price and the Titans Luke Bailey are out and other prospects have been injured, suspended or out of form, such as the Dragons' Jason Ryles. Dragons centre Mark Gasnier and Cowboys lock Luke O'Donnell would have been certainties but are unavailable through injury.
This game is traditionally a beat-up for the Aussies _ New Zealand have hosted the Anzac game just once, in 1998 at North Harbour, for a 22-16 win.
In 1999 it was 20-14 in Sydney, in 2000 52-0 and in 2003 48-6, in 2004 it was Aussie 37-120 at Newcastle, in 2005 32-16 and in 2006 50-12 in Brisbane.
On paper, our team looks good, as usual.
In reality, around 340 of the 400-odd top-grade players at the 16 NRL clubs are eligible for Australia, around 50 for New Zealand. The Kiwis are always better towards the end of the year with form, consistency and confidence behind them and when they can call in English-based players, gather some cohesion and put their best team on the park.
KIWIS (POSSIBLE)
Sam Perrett
Shaun Kenny-Dowall
Iosaia Soliola
Simon Mannering
Manu Vatuvei
Benji Marshall
Thomas Leuluai
Nathan Cayless
Nathan Fien
Roy Asotasi (c)
Sonny Bill Williams
Frank Pritchard
David Kidwell
KANGAROOS (POSS)
Billy Slater
Matt Bowen
Brent Tate
Justin Hodges
Israel Folau
Darren Lockyer (c)
Johnathan Thurston
Mark O'Meley
Cameron Smith
Brent Kite
Willie Mason
Andrew Ryan
Dallas Johnson
Kiwis: Lance Hohaia, Jeff Lima, Sam Rapira, Greg Eastwood.
Kangaroos: Scott Prince, Carl Webb, Anthony Tupou, Paul Gallen.