Benji Marshall. File photo / Dean Purcell
It's a curious truism that sometimes in sport the boldest move is to do nothing. Certainly that's one way of looking at Stephen Kearney's apparent inertia ahead of tomorrow morning's opening Four Nations clash against the Kangaroos in Warrington.
Not tinkering at all with a backline that was utterly shredded by the Australians just 12 days ago in Newcastle appears loyal to the point of recklessness.
Kearney has made just two changes to the side that was humiliated in that warm-up contest, and one of those was forced, with Ben Matulino replacing the suspended Russell Packer. And the side's lone Superleague player, Thomas Leuluai, replaces Nathan Fien at hooker. Leuluai is to come off the bench, with Issac Luke promoted to the starting role.
Fien seems a curious choice for a sacrificial lamb, given precious little of the blame for the Newcastle debacle rested on his shoulders.
Of more surprise, though, is Kearney's decision not to shore up the collective defensive calamity that passed for a backline in Newcastle.
Perhaps he's banking on the likes of Gerard Beale, who missed nine tackles, and Kalifa Faifai Loa, who was treated like road kill by Akuila Uate, being better for their trial by fire on debut in Newcastle.
But the fact is, of the five debutants the Kiwis fielded in that match, only Kevin Locke emerged with any credit. The left-sided combination of Alex Glenn, Lewis Brown and Faifai Loa, which boasted just Brown's one cap between them, suffered a total meltdown. Despite the presence of veterans Simon Mannering and Jason Nightingale, the right side fared little better.
The level of improvement required simply for the Kiwis to be competitive is vast, to the point that anything other than another heavy defeat tomorrow would be a surprise. That said, their title defence won't be determined by tomorrow's result.
Defeats to Australia in the pool stages of Tri- and Four-Nations tournaments in 2005 and 2010 - not to mention the 2008 World Cup - didn't prevent the Kiwis from walking off with the title.
Two wins out of the three pool matches should be enough to progress to the November 19 final at Elland Rd, the home of Leeds United Football Club.
Wales in London next week should be a banker, leaving the Kiwis' final hopes likely swinging on their final round robin showdown with England in Hull.
Given that context, Kearney's second chance approach for his Newcastle flops looks less of a gamble. If they fail again, he can always opt for the Mannering to the centres patch-up approach that worked in 08 and 10.
Vice-captain Adam Blair coming into the side after serving the final match of his suspension will also be a major boost. Blair's ability to play either as a mobile prop or a robust ball playing back rower will allow Kearney to tweak his pack.
The question is whether tweaks will be sufficient for one of the most raw Kiwis sides in recent memory to contend in this tournament.
With Darren Lockyer's farewell tour building to a likely swansong in the final, the Kangaroos will be desperate to ensure the most capped player in test history goes out on the right note. Lockyer, though, is much more than a talisman for this Kangaroos side.
Coach Tim Sheens admitted his heart was in his mouth when Lockyer went down after colliding with Russell Packer's elbow in the opening moments in Newcastle. Lockyer, Sheens said, was crucial to the Kangaroos' system.
Should Lockyer falter the back-up plan will be to adopt the default NRL system of dual halfbacks on either side of the ruck, with Cooper Cronk stationed on the right and Johnathan Thurston on the left. That would create some disruption and might just open a few chinks in the otherwise imperious Kangaroos armour.
Although there has been plenty of optimistic talk about England's prospects, the blather wasn't backed up by deeds during a scratchy 32-18 warm-up win over France. The presence of regular lock Kevin Sinfield at five-eighth in the first choice England side has already created some rumblings of discontent in the blogosphere.
Sinfield's selection ahead of well-performed Storm five-eighth Gareth Widdop is seen as more of the same from an England side that has lacked the creativity to trouble the Kangaroos and Kiwis in recent times. Widdop is on the bench for Sunday's opener against Wales, with former Junior Kiwi Rangi Chase named at halfback.
England have also recruited Cumbria-born Broncos centre Jack Reed and Wests Tigers forward Chris Heighington, boosting the level of NRL experience in the side. They will be far too good for a Wales side who boast Warrington playmaker Lee Briers as their only class act.
The first real test for England comes next week against the Kangaroos at Wembley. The Kiwis take on Wales in the curtain-raiser. It will be interesting to see if Kearney is still sticking to his guns by the time that match rolls around.
Kiwis
3/4 Nations Record
Won 11 Lost 11 Drew 2
Titles
Two (05, 10)
Squad
Gerard Beale, Alex Glenn, Jeremy Smith, Kieran Foran, Adam Blair, Sika Manu, Kevin Proctor, Lewis Brown, Kevin Locke, Simon Mannering, Ben Matulino, Russell Packer, Bill Tupou, Elijah Taylor, Kalifa Faifai Loa, Fuifui Moimoi, Sam McKendry, Jason Nightingale, Nathan Fien, Issac Luke, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Benji Marshall, Thomas Leuluai
Prospects
Not all that flash. The 42-6 thumping Stephen Kearney's side received in Newcastle suggests a successful title defence is a long way off. A more realistic goal might be simply getting past a strong England squad and into the title decider against the Roos in Leeds on November 19. With Benji Marshall, Kieran Foran, Issac Luke, Nathan Fien and lone Super Leaguer Thomas Leuluai in the squad, there's no shortage of quality halves and hookers for Kearney to call upon. The back row and to a lesser extent the front row are solid enough, however the team looks painfully thin in the centres and on the wings. Australia brutally exposed that lack of experience and depth out wide in the pre-tournament warm-up. How the Kiwis fare will depend on their ability to patch things back together on the fringes.
Captain fantastic
It hasn't been the greatest year for the Benji Marshall brand. A season that started with a late-night dust-up with a racist Sri Lankan ended with a mighty finals booboo that allowed the Warriors to halt the Tigers' procession to the grand final in its tracks. The launch of Marshall's (let's face it, first) autobiography then coincided with his presiding over that awful 42-6 pantsing in Newcastle. But Marshall's capacity for bouncing back in brilliant fashion should not be underestimated. Certainly no one has more passion for the Kiwis jumper. If the Kiwis rookies can settle into their new skins in time to avoid an early exit, Marshall may yet prove the trump card he was in 2010.
Kangaroos
3/4 Nations Record
Won 15 Lost 6 Drew 2
Titles
Four (99, 04, 06, 09)
Squad
Darren Lockyer, Corey Parker, Sam Thaiday, Jharal Yow Yeh, David Shillington, Josh Morris, Paul Gallen, Daly Cherry-Evans, Anthony Watmough, Tony Williams, Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater, Cameron Smith, Darius Boyd, Akuila Uate, Matthew Scott, Johnathan Thurston, Willie Tonga, Luke Lewis, Greg Inglis, Beau Scott, Chris Lawrence, Robbie Farah, Keith Galloway
Prospects
Huge favourites, as always. They might not be the force of old but the cracks in the Kangaroos' dominance of the 13-man game are still minor. Darren Lockyer's impending retirement may widen those fissures a touch, but you suspect this side would still go okay with Johnathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk running the cutter. The recruitment of six-test Fijian Akuila Uate adds some real strike to the right flank and Greg Inglis should add some class to the centres as the tournament progresses. If they are vulnerable anywhere it is up front, however Paul Gallen's ability to slip into the front row provides some crucial depth and useful mobility. As usual, it's hard to see the Roos being beaten - but that doesn't mean it won't happen.
Captain fantastic
For a few horrible moments it seemed Russell Packer's flying elbow in Newcastle may have put paid to Darren Lockyer's hopes of ending his magnificent career on a high note. Lockyer took a seriously deep breath before answering questions about Packer's intent in the incident, eventually offering that contact had been made with the side of his face that wasn't held together with a metal plate, so it was unlikely to have been a calculated attack. No harm, so only a minor foul, then, with Packer rubbed out for the rematch tomorrow in Warrington. Lockyer, meanwhile, soldiers on with his face (loosely) and his hopes of a fairytale finish intact.
England
3/4 Nations Record
Won 8 Lost 14 Drew 0
Titles
Nil
Squad
Jack Reed, Rangi Chase, Leroy Cudjoe, Kirk Yeaman, Carl Ablett, Ryan Bailey, Ryan Hall, Ben Jones-Bishop, Danny McGuire, Jamie Jones-Buchanan, Jamie Peacock, Kevin Sinfield, Gareth Widdop, James Graham, James Roby, Jon Wilkin, Gareth Carvell, Adrian Morley, Ben Westwood, Gareth Ellis, Chris Heighington, Michael McIlorum, Sam Tomkins
Prospects
All the talk is that this is the strongest England side assembled since, er, the last time the host nation assembled a half-decent side. We'll see. As always the strength is in the Jamie Peacock-led pack, with Bulldogs-bound prop James Graham, Tigers enforcer Gareth Ellis and former jailbird Ryan Bailey providing much of the grunt. Newly minted Englishmen Rangi Chase and Jack Reed add an Australasian flavour to the backline, while Melbourne's Gareth Widdop and Tigers forward Chris - go screw yourself then NSW - Heighington provide some NRL smarts. For all that, England's chances of doing more than just threatening probably ride on the strangely unpopular Sam Tomkins reproducing his Superleague form on the international stage. If the game's premier boo boy can provide some sorely lacking creativity, England might just do more than provide the odd scare.
Captain fantastic
If speaking in a Yorkshire accent was a sport, Jamie Peacock would be world class. He's also a seriously good poker player and a pretty darn decent footballer. But the idea that he would one day captain his country would have seemed preposterous about a decade and a half ago. Unwanted by his hometown club Leeds as a junior, Peacock joined neighbouring rivals Bradford's academy. When his frame stretched to 1.9m Peacock was quite literally the next big thing. If the clouds hovering over the English game do lift, no one will deserve their day in the sun more than the English captain.
Wales
3/4 Nations Record
Yet to play
Titles
Nil
Squad
Craig Kopczak, Mark Lennon, Chris Beasley, Ian Webster, Tyson Frizell, Andy Bracek, Gil Dudson, Ben Flower, Jordan James, Elliot Kear, Peter Lupton, Lloyd White, Lee Williams, Ross Divorty, Danny Jones, Neil Budworth, Andrew Gay, Aled James, Christiaan Roets, Ian Watson, Lee Briers, Rhys Williams, Matt Seamark
Prospects
Nil. Wales has produced a league legend or four (Billy Boston, Jim Sullivan, Trevor Foster, Clive Sullivan), but Lee Briers aside, this Welsh team reads like a who's nobody of the game. Tyson Frizzell - he of one match for Cronulla fame - is the lone current NRL player in a squad of largely second tier semi-pro club players. Wales qualified for the tournament by virtue of beating France in last year's European Nations Cup and appeared to be a nation on the rise. However, the demise of the Crusaders - the principality's lone Super League club - has put a serious dent in their progress and they will almost certainly maintain the winless run of previous fourth nations France and Papua New Guinea.
Captain fantastic
Lee Briers. A talented and at times tortured playmaking genius, Briers has been the guiding force behind Warrington's transition from also ran to two-time Challenge Cup winner and genuine Super League contender. One of the more talented players of his generation, the St Helens-born Briers' failure to achieve Great Britain or full England selection is likely more down to issues off the field than anything he has done on it. Far and away the class act in this Welsh team, it's doubtful Briers has the players around him to do more than create the odd individual highlight-reel play.
FOUR NATIONS SCHEDULE
All NZ times
Round one
Kiwis v Australia, Warrington (tomorrow, 8am)
England v Wales, Leigh (Sunday 3.30am)
Round two
Kiwis v Wales, London (6 November, 2am)
England v Australia, London (6 November, 4.30am)
Round three
Kiwis v England, Hull (13 November, 7am)
Wales v Australia, Wrexham (14 November, 6.45am)
Final
Elland Road, Leeds (20 November, 7am)
Brian McClennan's reviewed the upset loss to the Panthers on The Big League Podcast