Blues players after winning the Brisbane Global Rugby 10s. Photo / Photosport
The Brisbane Global Tens is expected to take a hiatus next year and, beyond that, where the tournament will be staged remains uncertain.
After disappointing attendances across the two-day event this year, the Herald understands organisers and investors have all but agreed the Tens will not take place in 2019.
A formal announcement is expected near the end of this month.
The Rugby World Cup was a major factor in this decision. Access to All Blacks and Wallabies proved problematic in the existing early February, preseason window. And with national coaches even more protective with the Webb Ellis Cup on the horizon, Duco Events, in consultation with all parties, will therefore opt to give the Tens a one-year break.
Duco adopted a similar approach with the NRL Auckland Nines, spelling that tournament this year due to complications with player access after the Rugby League World Cup.
This year's Tens tournament attracted under 30,000 fans to Suncorp Stadium – much of those New Zealanders.
New Zealand's viewership numbers are understood to have increased in the tournament's second edition, and that could provide a pointer to where the Tens may resume.
Support for the tournament in Brisbane has undoubtedly been hurt by the fallout from Super Rugby's messy restructure which saw the Western Force axed. The collective struggles of Australia's Super Rugby teams against New Zealand opposition – 36 losses in a row and counting – also didn't help.
The poor form and dwindling home crowds from the local Reds reflect the overall disengaged Australian rugby fan base.
In the second of its four-year contract, discussions about the best timing and venue for the Tens are now on-going, with Duco seeking feedback from teams, investors and other stakeholders.
Interest in staging the tournament in future has been registered from the UK to the Pacific Islands and other Australian cities.
But, by 2020, Auckland seems the logical short-term fix, given the vast majority of interest continues to come from New Zealand audiences.
The Queensland Government, in partnership with Brisbane City Council, are the major backer of the Tens, providing much of the funding. But to get the struggling event off the ground, they may be willing to granting approval to move the tournament, even on a short-term basis.
The Nines' expected move to Australia next year only further fuels speculation the Tens would be better suited to Auckland.
Any move to New Zealand's largest city would need support from Auckland Tourism Events and Economic Development (ATEED). Hosting 16 teams - men's and women's - with squads of up to 40 players is not a cheap exercise.
New Zealand Rugby is thought to support the Tens concept, believing the on-field product is worth persevering with as a one-off annual event.
Part of that stems from the $2 million Duco has invested into the five New Zealand and five Australian teams over the past two years – funding which created the rare scenario of profitable preseasons for multiple Kiwi teams.
Ultimately, the future success of the Tens probably hinges on the whether it can find a suitable window where more headline players can be included.
To this point, the event has been severely hamstrung by the All Blacks' mandated 12-week offseason, one which immediately rules out their participation.
Tweaking the timing, potentially to mid or late season, has the potentially to free up far more star attractions.
Beyond 2020 the restructure of the international rugby calendar could see the Tens find a more permanent place, provided it survives this next two year period.