“With that weight swing, there really shouldn’t be much between them but I can’t tip against The Cossack,” Nelson says.
“He has been there and done that and his two flat runs have cleaned him up nicely.
“I think he is as ready to carry the 73kg this weekend as he has been when he has done it in the past.”
That may be partially understandable bias from the co-trainer who has been through a lot with The Cossack but Nelson also emphasises that Nedwin still has plenty to learn about steeplechasing.
“He won well when he tried it for the first time last start but this is tougher, and while we think he has a really bright future doing this, he still has some things to learn.”
Those sort of comments could be enough to see their opening prices of $2.30 for Nedwin and $2.50 for The Cossack flip in the late stages of betting tomorrow.
Nelson is also against the market in a race with far more moving parts tomorrow, the $60,000 Fairview Motors Waikato Hurdle.
He and McDougal have both Taika and Dictation in the open hurdle and while both can win, this time Nelson favours the one better off at the weights but longer with the bookies.
“Both of them will take plenty of improvement from when they met here three weeks ago but Dictation looks to have cleaned up really nicely and he will be hard to beat,” Nelson says.
“Taika is a good horse who won well but obviously their weights could be a factor and Dictation only has to carry 66kg, while the other fella has 71.5kg.”
While that may push punters towards Dictation, there will also be strong support for Verry Flash, one of two in the race for the always-feared Kevin Myers – while Lord Spencer is the surprising overs in the race.
He ran on strongly but very late in that hurdle Taika won here three weeks ago and should relish the step up to 3200m and the heavy track but he comes in a lot worse off at the weights.
Because tomorrow’s two major jumps races are premier level, jockeys can’t use their claims – so while Lemmy Douglas was able to take 3kg off Lord Spencer’s weight last start tomorrow, the Great Northern winner will have to carry his full 71kg.
– LOVERACING.NZ News Desk