Superstars return at Addington but it might not be party time

Republican Party has been the best pacer in New Zealand this year but faces a huge challenge at Addington tonight. Photo / Ajay Berry

The two most complete pacers in New Zealand return at Addington tonight with the same problem.

Because both Marketplace and Republican Party are so good, they are supposed to win. But both could easily get beaten without losing their crowns.

It is a common story in modern harness racing: wonderful horse gets bad draw or tough handicap in comeback race and connections want him driven conservatively so that he starts his campaign with a positive experience.

If you think you might have read this story before, you have: last Friday, when Merlin returned off a 20m handicap in the Spring Cup at Alexandra Park.

He was a warm favourite, he was driven perfectly. He got beaten.

Republican Party faces that same problem tonight, when he kicks off his New Zealand Cup campaign from a 20m handicap in a $22,500 race.

Genuinely good pacers in We Walk By Faith (front line) and Alta Meteor and Mo’unga (10m) get a head start and, perhaps more importantly, field position over Republican Party in tonight’s 2600m.

Republican Party’s co-trainer, Cran Dalgety, wants him to win but doesn’t think he will yet. He is the Auckland Cup and Messenger winner and everybody loves him, so he opened $5, got out to $5.50, but name recognition alone could drive that price lower tonight.

“We are really happy with him, and he has had two trials, so he is ready as he can be,” Dalgety says.

“But I want him to be driven to fully exert himself over, say, 500m, not exert himself for 500m in the middle of the race to get around them, then have to exert himself again.”

Translated from trainer-speak to punter-speak, that means: He can win, but probably won’t, and you shouldn’t back him.

We Walk By Faith and Alta Meteor are better bets, while Don’t Stop Dreaming could win or finish last without surprising anybody. At his best, he is very good; at his worst, he seems very uninterested.

Like Republican Party, Marketplace is a son of the great Bettors Delight, and he might be a little bit special.

He could be our best pacer in a year, which could be almost enough time for him to escape the jetwash of Leap To Fame and Swayzee that has caused so many Kiwi pacers to crash and burn in the past two years.

A fully fit, on the speed and angry Marketplace would win tonight, but he won’t be any of those things because tonight is a step down a path towards races like the $500,000 Velocity, NZ Derby and Flying Stakes, all of which Marketplace is odds-on to win.

Adding to his issues tonight are the three really good rivals in Rubira, Got The Chocolates and Bettors Anvil, who are fitter than him and drawn inside him.

Trainer Regan Todd doesn’t waste his words.

“In all likelihood, he will go back at the start and hope for the right cart into the race, but we are also aware that might not come.”

Marketplace can still win, as he has only six rivals and could easily be in the one-one with 800m to go. If he is, his $1.80 opening price will feel like theft.

But if he is four back on the outer with one of his rivals ready to unleash a 55-second last 800m, then he could be both exceptional yet expensive.

Between now and the end of the harness racing season on December 31, both Republican Party and Marketplace are almost certain to win more stake money than any of the horses they race tonight.

But that doesn’t mean they should be carrying yours this time.

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.