KEY POINTS:
We could be about to see the defining moments of the jumping season.
Tomorrow's $30,000 Speights Awapuni Hurdles and $30,000 L.J. Hooker Manawatu Steeples are not the most important races of the winter, but they are strategically placed to provide a cross reference we might be using through
the remainder of the jumping season.
In the hurdles, unbeaten Gull steps up grades to meet talented old-timer Van Winkle and in the mix you have Counter Punch and the emerging Go Thenaki and even another unbeaten type in Starbo.
Two races earlier we will find out how good Just A Swagger is as he has a grab at better classes after a no-nonsense steeplechase debut win last time out.
Gull shares early favouritism with Van Winkle, which is no surprise. He has won all three hurdling starts, the most recent two as he's liked by margins of 16.5 lengths and 11 lengths, and coming in with 0.5kg off the minimum he looks the one to beat.
But Van Winkle is in probably the best form of his career, certainly his jumping career.
Co-trainer Evan Rayner explained after the veteran's victory in the Waikato Hurdles that the stable deliberately brought Van Winkle back into work earlier this season and have avoided the fitness catch-up, which they say never really happened last year.
Also Jamie Gillies is riding the horse extremely well. Previously Van Winkle could get pulling and Gillies has been throwing the reins to him when he gets too keen and says Van Winkle always comes back under him when he does it.
It certainly proved effective in the Waikato Hurdles when Van Winkle was tackled strongly in the home straight after leading and momentarily looked in danger, but had conserved sufficient energy, through not pulling as he previously had, to drive clear again and win by three lengths.
Neither of the favourites should mind if the track gets to heavy again after coming back a fraction.
Counter Punch was among the favourites when finishing seventh behind Van Winkle at Te Rapa, but everything went wrong in running and it may not pay to take that result too literally.
He has won three of his six hurdling starts and - perhaps more significant - one of them was in his current preparation at Trentham on April 28.
Big expectations were placed on Go Thenaki when he turned to hurdling last winter - he wasn't totally disappointing, but he didn't rattle the cages either.
That campaign was the making of him, though, as he showed when he resumed over the jumps with a win at Ellerslie last time. Now he has got his maiden out of the way the progress will probably continue.
Allan James would unquestionably produce the training performance of the season if he gets Starbo up to win.
Starbo's three unbeaten performances over hurdles include the 2005 Great Northern Hurdles, but he has not raced since finishing 16th in Envoy's Wellington Cup in late January last year. He hasn't been to an official barrier trial.
He is good, but he might need to be a superstar to overcome lack of racing when facing fit, hard horses like Van Winkle and Gull.
Even though the price was pretty good, it was no surprise Just A Swagger made a winning debut over the steeplechase fences at Wanganui last start.
Some were surprised that he managed it on a track considerably better than he has generally shown to prefer. That was officially rated as dead and this surface should be much closer to what he has won on previously.
As the real winter tracks approach Just A Swagger should prove his talent.
Havana City's handy third to stablemate Fair King in the McGregor Grant Steeples at Ellerslie last start will earn him support tomorrow.
Crown Dancer finished fourth in that race, but is probably not an Ellerslie horse and might prove a lot more difficult to contain here.
Her natural pace is better suited to this track.
In his best form The Jolly Dancer would probably start favourite, but he finished 25 lengths off Hypnotize on the first day at Te Rapa and 11.75 lengths behind Just A Swagger at Wanganui.
That is a long way off his true form, but Mark Oulaghan is too smart at his game to be running him if he didn't think there was at least some chance of a turnaround.