KEY POINTS:
Today's York Cup at Avondale is a competitive race, but Willy Smith is worth supporting because you can safely follow your money.
Barring accidents, by the end of the summer Willy Smith will have a high rating among the stayers.
He has had just the one run back
from a winter spell, but comes up quickly in a campaign and should go close in his step up to a more suitable 2000m from 1600m when he resumed.
Couple him up in quinellas and trifectas with Pretorius, Philamor and Luckshan and you shouldn't be far off the mark.
The connections of Speedalot (No4, R1) have decided not to take an apprentice claim this time after Corey Parish took significant weight off the mare's back at Ellerslie last week. She is starting to look for 2000m or more and backing up at 1600m may have blunted her dash even further, but she is heading places and should be able to overcome this in a small field. Any rain would help Sable (No1).
An apprentice claim would also look good on Wilkies Paint (No1, R2), but even with the 58kg he looks to have something on his opposition.
Sentosa (No6, R3) looked smart finishing third on debut from a wide gate and this time he has an inside draw and Opie Bosson in the saddle.
A wide barrier draw cost Skymaa (No9, R4) victory at Te Aroha last start. She was beaten a bare nose after being caught wide and receiving a rocky run. If she produces the same effort she will win this.
Arabian Knights (No3, R6) won at Te Rapa last start and looks like a mare that could string a couple together. The horse she beat by a long neck that day, Casa De Campo (No9), meets her 1kg better this time, but Noel Harris should be able to provide Arabian Knights with the perfect run.
If overnight rain takes the edge off the Avondale track it should suit Jonnybgood (No1, R7). He didn't get the breaks when only two lengths from the winner at Te Rapa last start and getting up to 2000m this time is going to lend a bit of assistance.
Pinot Grigio (No2, R8) is probably going to start a $2 favourite in the $100,000 Skycity Avondale Guineas and he deserves to. He'll probably win, but there is a slight word of warning - we don't yet know how good Veloce Bella (No10) might be. She is on the way up where Pinot Grigio has had a few tough races chasing Jokers Wild around in the Hawkes Bay and Wellington Guineas and had a float trip there and back to Christchurch and another toughie in the 2000 Guineas. An investment on Veloce Bella seems worthwhile, especially if the filly is at each-way odds. Purfect Size (No12) could be the value for the trifecta.
Bringbackthebiff (No7, R9) looked good when third resuming at Hawera and could be a nice each-way bet in what looks to be an even field.
The No12 barrier might put a few off Belle Joie (No3, R10) and she could be at useful odds fresh from a break. Kintyre Lil (No7) and Realign (No2) are strong chances.