Racing: Willy Smith and St Leger look perfect

You couldn't put a horse and a race together and have them fit as perfectly as Willy Smith and today's $50,000 New Zealand St Leger.

Willy Smith clinched St Leger favouritism as far back as January 28, Wellington Cup day, when he came from an impossible home turn spot and got up in the last two strides to win over 2400m.

It was the effort of a stayer heading to all the right places and not that he needed to, but he backed that effort up with a winning performance at Otaki that greatly impressed first-time rider Michael Walker.

Bad luck beat Phar Lap and Cardigan Bay and back runners like Willy Smith always leave themselves vulnerable, but it will be a surprise if the big, powerful Cambridge gelding is beaten on his merits today.

Fellow northerner Ring Of Fire is similarly going to go through to the best classes. This is a little stronger than the field he beat on Derby Day at Ellerslie, but he did it right that time, sprinting around the field on the home bend and winning comfortably.

There will be no fancy prices, but Miss Toffelees (No 3, R1) will be all the rage in the opening event at Trentham. She was strongly fancied to win the Robin, Duke Of Bedford Stakes at Matamata after a remarkable finishing effort from near last into fourth in the $500,000 New Zealand Bloodstock Classique at Te Rapa. The Matamata experience did not go well though and after covering ground Miss Toffelees finished 8th being forced over extra ground. The dogleg 1200m at Trentham shortens the distance between first and last as the field come across the course proper with 420m to run and if Miss Toffelees gets back as usual she should get a better run into the race.

It might have been a long time coming, but that was no fluke win by Mi Jubilee (No 1, R3) on Auckland Cup day at Ellerslie. Michael Rodd rode her confidently and the filly did the job with a fair bit of ease. She is not entirely over the foot problem that has held her back, but with a 3kg apprentice allowance bringing her back to 58kg, she will still give a sight against her own age group. Tatlock (No 5) took 10 starts to quit maidens, but many of them were in strong races. Now he has broken through, look for him to continue. He looks good each-way value here.

King Of Ashford (No 3, R7) might be looking for 2000m now, but a small field and the wide open Trentham spaces should suit him well enough in the Thompson Handicap. He was not disgraced finishing fourth behind Darci Brahma and Kristov at Otaki and drops 3kg under handicap conditions here. In a very strong line-up, don't ignore the southerner The Raj (No 8) with only 52kg.

Shikoba (No 1, R8) carries the No 1 saddlecloth and deserves it after a fabulous season that has landed her Filly Of The Year. She has to prove she can extend out to 2400m, but the heart she shows late in her races should take her there. Twinkling (No 3) will just love 2400m at Trentham under Grant Cooksley and Legs (No 4) will appreciate being back on good ground. Stablemates Everswindell (No 9) and Sharvasti (No 12) are big chances to figure in the trifecta.

Take the short odds on OBorio (No 2, R10) to end the day. He is going right to the top and it's difficult to imagine him striking enough bad luck in this to get him beaten, even though he does a few things wrong on occasions.

Orpington (No 5, R9) looks one of the better bets at Te Rapa today despite meeting a very select field. He looked to be fractionally outsprinted at the finish of a sharp 1200m at Ellerslie and the step back up to 1400m will help. He has won four of his five 1400m races and is unbeaten in two appearances at Te Rapa. Also, the handicap conditions here suit better than the weight-for-age at Ellerslie.

Earlier at Te Rapa, Thats Tops (No 4, R2) gets a chance for consolation after things did not go her way when resuming at Ellerslie on March 4. Although she probably would not have won, having a home-straight gap close on her cost Thats Tops dearly on that occasion. She should be slightly fitter for that.